Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Twin Cities, MN

566 
WWUS53 KMPX 010013
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
713 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC023-073-151-010045-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-240801T0045Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Chippewa MN-Swift MN-
713 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAC QUI PARLE...NORTHERN CHIPPEWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SWIFT COUNTIES...

At 712 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Watson, or 6
miles west of Montevideo, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Montevideo, Milan, Watson, Hagen, Big Bend City, Lac Qui Parle State
Park, and Montevideo Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4501 9602 4529 9571 4506 9538 4492 9572
      4493 9573 4492 9574 4489 9581 4489 9584
      4487 9585 4486 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 231DEG 25KT 4498 9585 

HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BPH

042 
WWUS53 KMPX 010026
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
726 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC151-010035-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-240801T0045Z/
Swift MN-
726 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SWIFT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4515 9552 4513 9547 4506 9538 4492 9572
      4493 9573 4489 9581 4491 9584 4499 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 254DEG 26KT 4496 9574 

$$

MNC023-073-010045-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-240801T0045Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Chippewa MN-
726 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL LAC QUI PARLE AND NORTHEASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES...

At 725 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Montevideo,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Montevideo, Watson, and Montevideo Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4515 9552 4513 9547 4506 9538 4492 9572
      4493 9573 4489 9581 4491 9584 4499 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 254DEG 26KT 4496 9574 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

BPH

995 
WWUS53 KMPX 010036
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
736 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC023-073-010046-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-240801T0045Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Chippewa MN-
736 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LAC QUI PARLE AND
NORTHEASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, heavy
rain is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
the Twin Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4515 9552 4513 9547 4506 9538 4492 9572
      4493 9573 4489 9581 4491 9584 4499 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 229DEG 28KT 4500 9568 

$$

BPH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
633 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced risk (3 of 5) today across western and southern
  Minnesota. The primary hazards include large hail and
  damaging wind gusts up to 80 MPH.

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon across western and
  central Minnesota, with uncertainty regarding potential
  secondary development this evening across SW & S Minnesota.

- Heat and Humidity continue through Saturday before cooler
  temperatures arrive the second half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

A regional view captures an mid-level wave on water vapor
imagery across central Dakotas. An ongoing mesoscale convective
system (MCS) is apparent over western Minnesota. This will our
immediate concern for severe weather this afternoon across west-
central Minnesota. The potential for additional development
further south remains uncertain at this time, but a high-end
instability (5000+ j/kg) is in place across much of central &
southern Minnesota. Forecast soundings indicate favorable
vertical shear, very steep mid level lapse rates 8.0-8.5C+ , and
elongated hodographs over western Minnesota. This environment
will be capable of producing both large hail (initially) and
damaging wind gust (60 mph+). Downdraft CAPE is not to be
overlooked with 1500+ j/kg present over much of the area, lining
up with moist low levels but drier air aloft that are able to
support severe wind gusts to potentially destructive (80 mph+).
SPC expanded the Enhanced risk (3 of 5) further NE with the
1630z update to better match recent observational trends. A
remnant elevated storm across the Dakotas has become better
organized over the past hour or two as it moves into a better
thermodynamic environment across eastern SD/western MN. The
storm has likely transitioned to surface-based storm as it taps
into extreme instability ahead of it. Radar imagery reveals our
line has began to exhibit bowing as it enters western Minnesota.
This would be indicative of a wind producing storm. Previous
observations across E SD show this line has a history of
producing 60 to 70 mph gusts. This line should continue to track
ENE impacting portions of western and central Minnesota. A
severe thunderstorm watch is out for portions of west-central MN
with the primary concern of damaging wind gusts, large hail.

There is some uncertainty with the southern extent of this line. The
better upper level forcing is confined to the northern portion of
the ongoing MCS. An approaching wave will provide additional upper
level forcing but it currently lags behind our MCS. We may not see
additional development on the initial ongoing MCS, but we could see
additional convection initiation across southwestern and southern
Minnesota late afternoon/evening as the better upper level support
arrives. The first MCS will add additional uncertainty with
convective debris (cirrus) impacting heating across portions of
southern Minnesota. The best odds for secondary development would
favor along and south of the Minnesota river. We are planning to
send up a special 19Z balloon launch at our office in Chanhassen to
better sample the convective environment ahead of the ongoing
storms. This should help answer a few of those remaining forecast
questions about this ongoing MCS and potential secondary development
this afternoon/evening over SW MN. I'll aim to send out an AFD
update later this today.

Thursday will feature a few lingering showers and thunderstorms
across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The main concern
with these storms will be the potential for brief bursts of heavy
rain and locally gusty winds. Temperatures will run a good 5 to 10
degrees cooler Thursday, but humidity will remain with dew point
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Showers and storms will
taper off Thursday evening and we'll begin to dry out for a day or
two. Friday will be dry and mostly sunny. High temperatures return
to the upper 80s and lower 90s with Tds in the 60s and lower 70s.

Saturday and Sunday will see the return of potential showers and
storms across the Upper Midwest. Saturday will be our final hot and
humid day for this forecast period with highs in the low 90s and low
70 dewpoints. There is some potential for low-end heat heat
headlines Saturday across western Minnesota and the Twin Cities
metro but it remains borderline for now. Our attention turns to a
weak surface boundary that is tied to an trough over NE NOAM east of
Hudson Bay. Storm development will be favored across northern
Minnesota Saturday evening before expanding further south as the
boundary sags south into central Minnesota. Sunday will bring a
renewed chance for showers and storms as a mid-level shortwave
provides another uptick of forcing along the quasi-stationary
boundary draped across the Upper Midwest. Potential for any severe
seems low at this time, but the finer details will be worked out
this weekend. Early next week looks to offer a most pleasant Summer
forecast for early August with temperatures in the 70s and 80s with
a break from annoying humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Thunderstorms over eastern and south-central MN will continue
moving east through this evening. Periods of MVFR/IFR from heavy
downpours and gusty variable winds can be expected with this
convection. Across western MN and eastern SD, another line of
storms has developed. This activity should eventually move
east/southeast through tonight. Uncertainty remains in exact
storm track with this line so have added PROB30s of -TSRA for
all terminals downstream. Very strong winds could accompany
this line of storms. Once storms move to east early Thursday
morning, cigs will drop to low VFR/MVFR into early Thursday
afternoon before improving. General easterly winds this evening
will be variable during storm passages with northerly flow
prevailing during Thursday morning.

KMSP...Added TEMPO for nearby thunderstorms approaching MSP for
the next 2 hours. Another line of storms is possible from 04-08Z
tonight with IFR conditions and very strong winds possible. Cigs
drop to MVFR near 12Z Thursday before improving to VFR Thursday
afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc AM MVFR/TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...CTG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
012030-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected early this evening, with damaging wind
gusts expected in the strongest storms. The potential for
destructive winds is highest across western and central Minnesota,
but the chance for severe weather still exists into eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon &
evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
637 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     Hail             3 WSW Alexandria        45.87N 95.42W
07/31/2024  M1.00 Inch       Douglas            MN   Cocorahs

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
639 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     Hail             6 NNW Northfield        44.54N 93.20W
07/31/2024  M2.00 Inch       Dakota             MN   Public

            Delayed report by the Sherrifs office.

&&

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
641 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Rain             3 SSW Inver Grove Heigh 44.81N 93.06W
07/31/2024  M1.24 Inch       Dakota             MN   Cocorahs

            1.24 inches of rainfall so far and still
            falling.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
648 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     Hail             5 SE Arlington          44.55N 94.02W
07/31/2024  M1.00 Inch       Sibley             MN   Trained Spotter

&&

RMD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
650 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ054>056-010030-
Chippewa MN-Lac Qui Parle MN-Swift MN-
650 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LAC QUI PARLE...NORTHWESTERN
CHIPPEWA AND SWIFT COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 649 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Odessa to near Appleton to near Dawson.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Montevideo, Benson, Madison, Dawson, Appleton, Milan, Watson, Boyd,
Bellingham, Marietta, Lake Oliver, and Lake Hassel.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 17 and 51.
 U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 1 and 37.
 U.S. Highway 75 between mile markers 95 and 127.
 U.S. Highway 59 between mile markers 105 and 153.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4526 9645 4525 9629 4522 9627 4518 9610
      4541 9612 4541 9534 4491 9568 4493 9573
      4489 9575 4489 9584 4481 9585 4480 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 247DEG 27KT 4526 9633 4515 9609 4489 9598

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
656 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Gaylord           44.56N 94.22W
07/31/2024                   Sibley             MN   Storm Chaser

            Multiple trees and branches downed up to 20
            inches in diameter. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

BED