Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Twin Cities, MN

636 
WWUS53 KMPX 312224
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
524 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC149-312245-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-240731T2245Z/
Stevens MN-
524 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN STEVENS COUNTY...

At 522 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Donnelly, or 7
miles northwest of Morris, moving east at 20 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR DONNELLY.

HAZARD...Baseball size hail.

SOURCE...Law enforcement.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. 
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, 
         siding, and vehicles.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Stevens County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4576 9609 4576 9583 4561 9580 4558 9604
      4574 9617
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 251DEG 18KT 4569 9598 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

BPH

900 
WWUS53 KMPX 312240
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
540 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC149-312249-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-240731T2245Z/
Stevens MN-
540 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN STEVENS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However, small hail and heavy rain are still
possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4576 9609 4576 9583 4561 9580 4558 9604
      4574 9617
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 253DEG 16KT 4571 9589 

$$

BPH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
153 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced risk (3 of 5) today across western and southern
  Minnesota. The primary hazards include large hail and
  damaging wind gusts up to 80 MPH.

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon across western and
  central Minnesota, with uncertainty regarding potential
  secondary development this evening across SW & S Minnesota.

- Heat and Humidity continue through Saturday before cooler
  temperatures arrive the second half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

A regional view captures an mid-level wave on water vapor
imagery across central Dakotas. An ongoing mesoscale convective
system (MCS) is apparent over western Minnesota. This will our
immediate concern for severe weather this afternoon across west-
central Minnesota. The potential for additional development
further south remains uncertain at this time, but a high-end
instability (5000+ j/kg) is in place across much of central &
southern Minnesota. Forecast soundings indicate favorable
vertical shear, very steep mid level lapse rates 8.0-8.5C+ , and
elongated hodographs over western Minnesota. This environment
will be capable of producing both large hail (initially) and
damaging wind gust (60 mph+). Downdraft CAPE is not to be
overlooked with 1500+ j/kg present over much of the area, lining
up with moist low levels but drier air aloft that are able to
support severe wind gusts to potentially destructive (80 mph+).
SPC expanded the Enhanced risk (3 of 5) further NE with the
1630z update to better match recent observational trends. A
remnant elevated storm across the Dakotas has become better
organized over the past hour or two as it moves into a better
thermodynamic environment across eastern SD/western MN. The
storm has likely transitioned to surface-based storm as it taps
into extreme instability ahead of it. Radar imagery reveals our
line has began to exhibit bowing as it enters western Minnesota.
This would be indicative of a wind producing storm. Previous
observations across E SD show this line has a history of
producing 60 to 70 mph gusts. This line should continue to track
ENE impacting portions of western and central Minnesota. A
severe thunderstorm watch is out for portions of west-central MN
with the primary concern of damaging wind gusts, large hail.

There is some uncertainty with the southern extent of this line. The
better upper level forcing is confined to the northern portion of
the ongoing MCS. An approaching wave will provide additional upper
level forcing but it currently lags behind our MCS. We may not see
additional development on the initial ongoing MCS, but we could see
additional convection initiation across southwestern and southern
Minnesota late afternoon/evening as the better upper level support
arrives. The first MCS will add additional uncertainty with
convective debris (cirrus) impacting heating across portions of
southern Minnesota. The best odds for secondary development would
favor along and south of the Minnesota river. We are planning to
send up a special 19Z balloon launch at our office in Chanhassen to
better sample the convective environment ahead of the ongoing
storms. This should help answer a few of those remaining forecast
questions about this ongoing MCS and potential secondary development
this afternoon/evening over SW MN. I'll aim to send out an AFD
update later this today.

Thursday will feature a few lingering showers and thunderstorms
across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The main concern
with these storms will be the potential for brief bursts of heavy
rain and locally gusty winds. Temperatures will run a good 5 to 10
degrees cooler Thursday, but humidity will remain with dew point
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Showers and storms will
taper off Thursday evening and we'll begin to dry out for a day or
two. Friday will be dry and mostly sunny. High temperatures return
to the upper 80s and lower 90s with Tds in the 60s and lower 70s.

Saturday and Sunday will see the return of potential showers and
storms across the Upper Midwest. Saturday will be our final hot and
humid day for this forecast period with highs in the low 90s and low
70 dewpoints. There is some potential for low-end heat heat
headlines Saturday across western Minnesota and the Twin Cities
metro but it remains borderline for now. Our attention turns to a
weak surface boundary that is tied to an trough over NE NOAM east of
Hudson Bay. Storm development will be favored across northern
Minnesota Saturday evening before expanding further south as the
boundary sags south into central Minnesota. Sunday will bring a
renewed chance for showers and storms as a mid-level shortwave
provides another uptick of forcing along the quasi-stationary
boundary draped across the Upper Midwest. Potential for any severe
seems low at this time, but the finer details will be worked out
this weekend. Early next week looks to offer a most pleasant Summer
forecast for early August with temperatures in the 70s and 80s with
a break from annoying humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

The main concern through this evening will be the track and timing
of a thunderstorm complex capable of damaging winds. Current
radar has a cluster of severe storms along the central MN/SD
border, and this complex is expected to impact AXN & STC over
the next 1-3 hours. More uncertain is whether complex will build
more to the south, and potentially bring severe thunderstorm
impacts to RWF/MKT/MSP later this afternoon & early evening.
Winds in excess of 40 kts are expected with these thunderstorms
and potentially could gust as high as 70-80 kts. Current
thinking is that we will see additional development tot he south
of the ongoing complex, so have included a TEMPO for TSRA for
2-3 hours late this afternoon and early this evening. More
uncertain is the potential for thunderstorms this evening behind
the ongoing complex. The chance is lower wherever thunderstorms
occur this afternoon, but become much more likely at
RWF/MKT/MSP if the ongoing complex does not show any further
development. For now, have handled this with a PROB30 mention
but this will be upgraded or removed based on convective trends
later this afternoon.

After the precip tonight, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
early tomorrow morning & persist through much of the morning.

KMSP...Very complex forecast regarding thunderstorms chances
this afternoon & evening. The main window for thunderstorms and
severe wind gusts currently looks to be between 5-8 PM. However,
this depends on additional development occurring along the
ongoing thunderstorm complex along the MN/SD border. If this
development does not occur, a later round of thunderstorms
(possibly severe) looks more possible, closer to 7-10 PM. Wind
gusts over 40 kts are likely if the thunderstorm complex reaches
MSP this evening with gusts around 70 kts possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU PM...CHC MVFR -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind N 5-10 kts
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...ETA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
012030-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected early this evening, with damaging wind
gusts expected in the strongest storms. The potential for
destructive winds is highest across western and central Minnesota,
but the chance for severe weather still exists into eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon &
evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
158 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WSW Evansville        46.00N 95.73W
07/31/2024  M53 MPH          Douglas            MN   Mesonet

            Mesonet station MN133 I-94 - Evansville - Mp
            82.8.

0153 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SW Alexandria         45.87N 95.40W
07/31/2024  M54 MPH          Douglas            MN   ASOS

            ASOS station KAXN Alexandria MN ASOS.

&&

Borghoff

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
306 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SE Clarissa           46.11N 94.92W
07/31/2024  M53 MPH          Todd               MN   Mesonet

            Mesonet station MN121 U.s.71 - Clarissa - Mp
            197.5.

&&

Borghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
320 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ043-312100-
Morrison MN-
320 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MORRISON COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 320 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fort Ripley to near Royalton. Movement was
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Little Falls, Pierz, Royalton, Lastrup, Camp Ripley, Morrill,
Buckman, Harding, Genola, Hillman, Little Falls Airport, and Camp
Ripley Junction.

This includes U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 143
and 157.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central and east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4618 9437 4616 9437 4616 9381 4598 9381
      4598 9378 4583 9377 4582 9434 4582 9435
      4580 9433 4580 9434 4581 9436 4620 9440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 276DEG 26KT 4614 9431 4587 9428

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Borghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
323 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ049-058-312100-
Stearns MN-Meeker MN-
323 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MEEKER AND SOUTHEASTERN
STEARNS COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 322 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Albany to 5 miles south of
Paynesville. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
St. Cloud, Sartell, Waite Park, St. Joseph, Cold Spring, Rockville,
Paynesville, Richmond, Watkins, Kimball, Farming, and Forest City.

This includes Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 157 and
168.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4531 9422 4531 9425 4515 9426 4522 9476
      4524 9477 4559 9474 4560 9419
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 270DEG 30KT 4553 9467 4530 9474

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Borghoff

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
405 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Alexandria              45.89N 95.37W
07/31/2024                   Douglas            MN   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report, time estimated from radar.
            Multiple trees downed on power lines and
            roads.

&&

BED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
502 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ060-062-312245-
Hennepin MN-Ramsey MN-
502 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HENNEPIN AND
SOUTHWESTERN RAMSEY COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 502 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm over St. Louis Park, or near Minneapolis, moving east at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, St. Paul, Edina, St. Louis Park, Richfield, Roseville,
Golden Valley, Hopkins, MSP International Airport, Falcon Heights,
Lauderdale, and Fort Snelling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4501 9313 4490 9314 4488 9319 4487 9337
      4498 9338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 271DEG 14KT 4493 9332

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Borghoff