Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Twin Cities, MN

959 
WWUS53 KMPX 311841
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
141 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC041-121-311915-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-240731T1915Z/
Douglas MN-Pope MN-
141 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR DOUGLAS AND POPE COUNTIES...

At 141 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles northeast of Ashby to 5 miles south of Brandon
to Hancock, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Alexandria, Starbuck, Brandon, and Lowry around 145 PM CDT.
  Glenwood and Carlos around 155 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Alexandria Airport, Glenwood Airport, Westport, Nelson, Lake Carlos
State Park, Garfield, Grove Lake, Melby, Villard, and Miltona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4611 9515 4562 9515 4541 9575 4611 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 258DEG 38KT 4618 9575 4588 9557 4551 9577 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

305 
WWUS53 KMPX 311900
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
200 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC041-121-311915-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-240731T1915Z/
Douglas MN-Pope MN-
200 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR DOUGLAS AND POPE COUNTIES...

At 159 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Henning to Carlos to 7 miles north of Lake
Hassel, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Glenwood around 205 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Alexandria Airport, Glenwood Airport, Westport, Nelson, Lake Carlos
State Park, Garfield, Grove Lake, Villard, Miltona, and Rose City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4611 9515 4562 9515 4541 9575 4572 9576
      4597 9567 4611 9572
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 248DEG 51KT 4627 9543 4597 9525 4549 9557 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
119 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some significant severe storms possible today, with
  uncertainty regarding timing and location.

- Heat could approach heat advisory levels today, depending on
  evolution of storms and clouds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Warm and humid will be the story today, which will fuel some
potentially significant severe storms across parts of the area
this afternoon and evening. However, there remains quite a bit
of uncertainty regarding storm activity later today as it could
be heavily influenced by morning convection over South Dakota
which models are struggling to resolve so far. CAMs solutions
in particular are generally not picking up on the morning
activity very well and therefore diverge quite a bit with storm
evolution this afternoon. As the model spread suggests, the
eventual evolution of morning storms could mean anything from
storms/clouds making it as far east as the Twin Cities by mid
afternoon, to storms not reaching western Minnesota until late
afternoon and becoming more of an overnight threat for the metro
and into Wisconsin. With this much uncertainty regarding storms
and clouds, decided to hold off on any heat advisories for now
until the picture can become more clear. If skies remain mostly
sunny through the day, then temperatures could reach as high as
the middle 90s and push heat index values as high as 105.

Depending on how the convective picture eventually plays out
later today, ingredients could line up for some potentially
significant severe storms somewhere in the forecast area. Very
strong instability coupled with rather steep mid-level lapse
rates could favor damaging wind gusts greater than 70 mph as
well as hail of 2" or larger. Shear will be marginal, so the
most likely window for severe storms of this magnitude would be
in the first couple of hours of storm initiation before strong
outflow eventually weakens the overall line of storms. Once
again where and when the strongest storms initiate will depend
on how morning convection plays out, but the more likely
scenario currently points to western and southwestern Minnesota
for the strongest storms this afternoon with a weakening line
approaching the Twin Cities by evening. If storms evolve faster
than this, it could push the threat for severe storms further
east toward the metro. We'll have a much clearer picture
regarding today's thunderstorm and heat threats once models can
better resolve this morning's convection out west.

Thursday could see a few lingering showers and storms generally
from the Twin Cities eastward as an upper level trough slowly
drifts southeastward overhead. Instability and shear parameters
will be generally unfavorable for strong storms with this
activity. Things will then dry out for the weekend while
temperatures rebound back into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Will
need to watch for marginal heat concerns although dewpoints
will be about 5 to 10 degrees lower than what we've seen the
past few days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

The main concern through this evening will be the track and timing
of a thunderstorm complex capable of damaging winds. Current
radar has a cluster of severe storms along the central MN/SD
border, and this complex is expected to impact AXN & STC over
the next 1-3 hours. More uncertain is whether complex will build
more to the south, and potentially bring severe thunderstorm
impacts to RWF/MKT/MSP later this afternoon & early evening.
Winds in excess of 40 kts are expected with these thunderstorms
and potentially could gust as high as 70-80 kts. Current
thinking is that we will see additional development tot he south
of the ongoing complex, so have included a TEMPO for TSRA for
2-3 hours late this afternoon and early this evening. More
uncertain is the potential for thunderstorms this evening behind
the ongoing complex. The chance is lower wherever thunderstorms
occur this afternoon, but become much more likely at
RWF/MKT/MSP if the ongoing complex does not show any further
development. For now, have handled this with a PROB30 mention
but this will be upgraded or removed based on convective trends
later this afternoon.

After the precip tonight, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
early tomorrow morning & persist through much of the morning.

KMSP...Very complex forecast regarding thunderstorms chances
this afternoon & evening. The main window for thunderstorms and
severe wind gusts currently looks to be between 5-8 PM. However,
this depends on additional development occurring along the
ongoing thunderstorm complex along the MN/SD border. If this
development does not occur, a later round of thunderstorms
(possibly severe) looks more possible, closer to 7-10 PM. Wind
gusts over 40 kts are likely if the thunderstorm complex reaches
MSP this evening with gusts around 70 kts possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU PM...CHC MVFR -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind N 5-10 kts
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...ETA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
319 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
010830-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
319 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hot and humid conditions are expected today with heat indices
approaching 95-100 degrees.

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds in excess of 70 MPH
and large hail are likely this afternoon through this evening.
The potential for destructive winds is highest across western
Minnesota, but chances for severe weather still exist into eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
111 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ054-055-311900-
Lac Qui Parle MN-Swift MN-
111 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAC QUI PARLE AND
WESTERN SWIFT COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 111 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ortonville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lake Oliver around 140 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Louisburg, Big Stone
National Wildlife Refuge, Appleton Airport, and Holloway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4527 9645 4525 9640 4525 9629 4522 9627
      4519 9617 4520 9613 4518 9610 4541 9611
      4541 9597 4521 9589 4509 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 254DEG 31KT 4525 9642

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Borghoff