Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Twin Cities, MN

422 
WWUS53 KMPX 010001 RRA
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
701 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC049-010045-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0120.000000T0000Z-240801T0045Z/
Goodhue MN-
701 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL GOODHUE COUNTY...

At 701 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Goodhue, or 9
miles south of Red Wing, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Goodhue around 705 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Bellechester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4443 9279 4456 9260 4445 9243 4437 9243
      4437 9254 4430 9255 4426 9262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 317DEG 16KT 4442 9262 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

023 
WWUS53 KMPX 010016
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
716 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC049-010045-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0120.000000T0000Z-240801T0045Z/
Goodhue MN-
716 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL GOODHUE COUNTY...

At 716 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Goodhue, or 10
miles south of Red Wing, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Goodhue County, including the following locations...
Bellechester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4448 9271 4456 9260 4445 9243 4437 9243
      4437 9254 4430 9255 4429 9258
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 311DEG 6KT 4440 9259 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

143 
WWUS53 KMPX 010031
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
731 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC049-010045-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0120.000000T0000Z-240801T0045Z/
Goodhue MN-
731 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL GOODHUE COUNTY...

At 731 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Goodhue, or 12
miles south of Red Wing, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Goodhue and Bellechester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4439 9265 4451 9252 4445 9243 4437 9243
      4437 9254 4430 9255 4429 9258
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 300DEG 8KT 4438 9251 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BPH

707 
WWUS53 KMPX 010040
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
740 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC049-010050-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0120.000000T0000Z-240801T0045Z/
Goodhue MN-
740 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL GOODHUE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 745 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
the Twin Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4439 9265 4451 9252 4445 9243 4437 9243
      4437 9254 4430 9255 4429 9258
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 311DEG 6KT 4437 9250 

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
633 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced risk (3 of 5) today across western and southern
  Minnesota. The primary hazards include large hail and
  damaging wind gusts up to 80 MPH.

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon across western and
  central Minnesota, with uncertainty regarding potential
  secondary development this evening across SW & S Minnesota.

- Heat and Humidity continue through Saturday before cooler
  temperatures arrive the second half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

A regional view captures an mid-level wave on water vapor
imagery across central Dakotas. An ongoing mesoscale convective
system (MCS) is apparent over western Minnesota. This will our
immediate concern for severe weather this afternoon across west-
central Minnesota. The potential for additional development
further south remains uncertain at this time, but a high-end
instability (5000+ j/kg) is in place across much of central &
southern Minnesota. Forecast soundings indicate favorable
vertical shear, very steep mid level lapse rates 8.0-8.5C+ , and
elongated hodographs over western Minnesota. This environment
will be capable of producing both large hail (initially) and
damaging wind gust (60 mph+). Downdraft CAPE is not to be
overlooked with 1500+ j/kg present over much of the area, lining
up with moist low levels but drier air aloft that are able to
support severe wind gusts to potentially destructive (80 mph+).
SPC expanded the Enhanced risk (3 of 5) further NE with the
1630z update to better match recent observational trends. A
remnant elevated storm across the Dakotas has become better
organized over the past hour or two as it moves into a better
thermodynamic environment across eastern SD/western MN. The
storm has likely transitioned to surface-based storm as it taps
into extreme instability ahead of it. Radar imagery reveals our
line has began to exhibit bowing as it enters western Minnesota.
This would be indicative of a wind producing storm. Previous
observations across E SD show this line has a history of
producing 60 to 70 mph gusts. This line should continue to track
ENE impacting portions of western and central Minnesota. A
severe thunderstorm watch is out for portions of west-central MN
with the primary concern of damaging wind gusts, large hail.

There is some uncertainty with the southern extent of this line. The
better upper level forcing is confined to the northern portion of
the ongoing MCS. An approaching wave will provide additional upper
level forcing but it currently lags behind our MCS. We may not see
additional development on the initial ongoing MCS, but we could see
additional convection initiation across southwestern and southern
Minnesota late afternoon/evening as the better upper level support
arrives. The first MCS will add additional uncertainty with
convective debris (cirrus) impacting heating across portions of
southern Minnesota. The best odds for secondary development would
favor along and south of the Minnesota river. We are planning to
send up a special 19Z balloon launch at our office in Chanhassen to
better sample the convective environment ahead of the ongoing
storms. This should help answer a few of those remaining forecast
questions about this ongoing MCS and potential secondary development
this afternoon/evening over SW MN. I'll aim to send out an AFD
update later this today.

Thursday will feature a few lingering showers and thunderstorms
across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The main concern
with these storms will be the potential for brief bursts of heavy
rain and locally gusty winds. Temperatures will run a good 5 to 10
degrees cooler Thursday, but humidity will remain with dew point
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Showers and storms will
taper off Thursday evening and we'll begin to dry out for a day or
two. Friday will be dry and mostly sunny. High temperatures return
to the upper 80s and lower 90s with Tds in the 60s and lower 70s.

Saturday and Sunday will see the return of potential showers and
storms across the Upper Midwest. Saturday will be our final hot and
humid day for this forecast period with highs in the low 90s and low
70 dewpoints. There is some potential for low-end heat heat
headlines Saturday across western Minnesota and the Twin Cities
metro but it remains borderline for now. Our attention turns to a
weak surface boundary that is tied to an trough over NE NOAM east of
Hudson Bay. Storm development will be favored across northern
Minnesota Saturday evening before expanding further south as the
boundary sags south into central Minnesota. Sunday will bring a
renewed chance for showers and storms as a mid-level shortwave
provides another uptick of forcing along the quasi-stationary
boundary draped across the Upper Midwest. Potential for any severe
seems low at this time, but the finer details will be worked out
this weekend. Early next week looks to offer a most pleasant Summer
forecast for early August with temperatures in the 70s and 80s with
a break from annoying humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Thunderstorms over eastern and south-central MN will continue
moving east through this evening. Periods of MVFR/IFR from heavy
downpours and gusty variable winds can be expected with this
convection. Across western MN and eastern SD, another line of
storms has developed. This activity should eventually move
east/southeast through tonight. Uncertainty remains in exact
storm track with this line so have added PROB30s of -TSRA for
all terminals downstream. Very strong winds could accompany
this line of storms. Once storms move to east early Thursday
morning, cigs will drop to low VFR/MVFR into early Thursday
afternoon before improving. General easterly winds this evening
will be variable during storm passages with northerly flow
prevailing during Thursday morning.

KMSP...Added TEMPO for nearby thunderstorms approaching MSP for
the next 2 hours. Another line of storms is possible from 04-08Z
tonight with IFR conditions and very strong winds possible. Cigs
drop to MVFR near 12Z Thursday before improving to VFR Thursday
afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc AM MVFR/TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...CTG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
012030-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected early this evening, with damaging wind
gusts expected in the strongest storms. The potential for
destructive winds is highest across western and central Minnesota,
but the chance for severe weather still exists into eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon &
evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
625 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

WIZ014-023-010000-
Polk WI-St. Croix WI-
625 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL ST. CROIX AND
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 625 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Star Prairie, or 26 miles north of River Falls,
moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Amery, Clear Lake, Star Prairie, Deer Park, Deronda, Huntington, New
Richmond Airport, and Wanderoos.

This includes U.S. Highway 61 near mile marker 165.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4514 9258 4527 9262 4538 9232 4520 9223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 262DEG 9KT 4523 9249

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Hail             1 WNW Winthrop          44.55N 94.38W
07/31/2024  M1.00 Inch       Sibley             MN   Trained Spotter

            Time estimated from radar.

&&

BED

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
636 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 WSW Morris            45.57N 95.97W
07/31/2024  M48 MPH          Stevens            MN   AWOS

            AWOS station KMOX Morris AP.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
637 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     Hail             3 WSW Alexandria        45.87N 95.42W
07/31/2024  M1.00 Inch       Douglas            MN   Cocorahs

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
639 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     Hail             6 NNW Northfield        44.54N 93.20W
07/31/2024  M2.00 Inch       Dakota             MN   Public

            Delayed report by the Sherrifs office.

&&

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
641 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Rain             3 SSW Inver Grove Heigh 44.81N 93.06W
07/31/2024  M1.24 Inch       Dakota             MN   Cocorahs

            1.24 inches of rainfall so far and still
            falling.

&&

RMD