Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Twin Cities, MN

894 
WWUS53 KMPX 312344
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC085-312353-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0118.000000T0000Z-240801T0015Z/
McLeod MN-
644 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCLEOD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4446 9416 4470 9424 4472 9391 4468 9389
      4467 9377 4463 9377 4463 9381 4459 9389
      4455 9389 4454 9391 4451 9388 4446 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 279DEG 21KT 4459 9410 

$$

MNC143-010015-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0118.000000T0000Z-240801T0015Z/
Sibley MN-
644 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN SIBLEY COUNTY...

At 643 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Arlington, or
25 miles southeast of Hutchinson, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Arlington around 650 PM CDT.
  Henderson around 700 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Rush
River, New Rome, and New Auburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4446 9416 4470 9424 4472 9391 4468 9389
      4467 9377 4463 9377 4463 9381 4459 9389
      4455 9389 4454 9391 4451 9388 4446 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 279DEG 21KT 4459 9410 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BPH

442 
WWUS53 KMPX 312353
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
653 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC143-010015-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0118.000000T0000Z-240801T0015Z/
Sibley MN-
653 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN SIBLEY COUNTY...

At 653 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Henderson, or
24 miles north of Mankato, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Henderson around 700 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Rush
River and New Rome.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4446 9415 4458 9410 4466 9398 4468 9389
      4467 9377 4463 9377 4463 9381 4459 9389
      4455 9389 4454 9391 4451 9388 4446 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 286DEG 22KT 4452 9401 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BPH

539 
WWUS53 KMPX 010004
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
704 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC143-010014-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0118.000000T0000Z-240801T0015Z/
Sibley MN-
704 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SIBLEY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central, central and east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4446 9415 4458 9410 4466 9398 4468 9389
      4467 9377 4463 9377 4463 9381 4459 9389
      4455 9389 4454 9391 4451 9388 4446 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 279DEG 21KT 4451 9392 

$$

BPH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
153 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced risk (3 of 5) today across western and southern
  Minnesota. The primary hazards include large hail and
  damaging wind gusts up to 80 MPH.

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon across western and
  central Minnesota, with uncertainty regarding potential
  secondary development this evening across SW & S Minnesota.

- Heat and Humidity continue through Saturday before cooler
  temperatures arrive the second half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

A regional view captures an mid-level wave on water vapor
imagery across central Dakotas. An ongoing mesoscale convective
system (MCS) is apparent over western Minnesota. This will our
immediate concern for severe weather this afternoon across west-
central Minnesota. The potential for additional development
further south remains uncertain at this time, but a high-end
instability (5000+ j/kg) is in place across much of central &
southern Minnesota. Forecast soundings indicate favorable
vertical shear, very steep mid level lapse rates 8.0-8.5C+ , and
elongated hodographs over western Minnesota. This environment
will be capable of producing both large hail (initially) and
damaging wind gust (60 mph+). Downdraft CAPE is not to be
overlooked with 1500+ j/kg present over much of the area, lining
up with moist low levels but drier air aloft that are able to
support severe wind gusts to potentially destructive (80 mph+).
SPC expanded the Enhanced risk (3 of 5) further NE with the
1630z update to better match recent observational trends. A
remnant elevated storm across the Dakotas has become better
organized over the past hour or two as it moves into a better
thermodynamic environment across eastern SD/western MN. The
storm has likely transitioned to surface-based storm as it taps
into extreme instability ahead of it. Radar imagery reveals our
line has began to exhibit bowing as it enters western Minnesota.
This would be indicative of a wind producing storm. Previous
observations across E SD show this line has a history of
producing 60 to 70 mph gusts. This line should continue to track
ENE impacting portions of western and central Minnesota. A
severe thunderstorm watch is out for portions of west-central MN
with the primary concern of damaging wind gusts, large hail.

There is some uncertainty with the southern extent of this line. The
better upper level forcing is confined to the northern portion of
the ongoing MCS. An approaching wave will provide additional upper
level forcing but it currently lags behind our MCS. We may not see
additional development on the initial ongoing MCS, but we could see
additional convection initiation across southwestern and southern
Minnesota late afternoon/evening as the better upper level support
arrives. The first MCS will add additional uncertainty with
convective debris (cirrus) impacting heating across portions of
southern Minnesota. The best odds for secondary development would
favor along and south of the Minnesota river. We are planning to
send up a special 19Z balloon launch at our office in Chanhassen to
better sample the convective environment ahead of the ongoing
storms. This should help answer a few of those remaining forecast
questions about this ongoing MCS and potential secondary development
this afternoon/evening over SW MN. I'll aim to send out an AFD
update later this today.

Thursday will feature a few lingering showers and thunderstorms
across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The main concern
with these storms will be the potential for brief bursts of heavy
rain and locally gusty winds. Temperatures will run a good 5 to 10
degrees cooler Thursday, but humidity will remain with dew point
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Showers and storms will
taper off Thursday evening and we'll begin to dry out for a day or
two. Friday will be dry and mostly sunny. High temperatures return
to the upper 80s and lower 90s with Tds in the 60s and lower 70s.

Saturday and Sunday will see the return of potential showers and
storms across the Upper Midwest. Saturday will be our final hot and
humid day for this forecast period with highs in the low 90s and low
70 dewpoints. There is some potential for low-end heat heat
headlines Saturday across western Minnesota and the Twin Cities
metro but it remains borderline for now. Our attention turns to a
weak surface boundary that is tied to an trough over NE NOAM east of
Hudson Bay. Storm development will be favored across northern
Minnesota Saturday evening before expanding further south as the
boundary sags south into central Minnesota. Sunday will bring a
renewed chance for showers and storms as a mid-level shortwave
provides another uptick of forcing along the quasi-stationary
boundary draped across the Upper Midwest. Potential for any severe
seems low at this time, but the finer details will be worked out
this weekend. Early next week looks to offer a most pleasant Summer
forecast for early August with temperatures in the 70s and 80s with
a break from annoying humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

The main concern through this evening will be the track and timing
of a thunderstorm complex capable of damaging winds. Current
radar has a cluster of severe storms along the central MN/SD
border, and this complex is expected to impact AXN & STC over
the next 1-3 hours. More uncertain is whether complex will build
more to the south, and potentially bring severe thunderstorm
impacts to RWF/MKT/MSP later this afternoon & early evening.
Winds in excess of 40 kts are expected with these thunderstorms
and potentially could gust as high as 70-80 kts. Current
thinking is that we will see additional development tot he south
of the ongoing complex, so have included a TEMPO for TSRA for
2-3 hours late this afternoon and early this evening. More
uncertain is the potential for thunderstorms this evening behind
the ongoing complex. The chance is lower wherever thunderstorms
occur this afternoon, but become much more likely at
RWF/MKT/MSP if the ongoing complex does not show any further
development. For now, have handled this with a PROB30 mention
but this will be upgraded or removed based on convective trends
later this afternoon.

After the precip tonight, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
early tomorrow morning & persist through much of the morning.

KMSP...Very complex forecast regarding thunderstorms chances
this afternoon & evening. The main window for thunderstorms and
severe wind gusts currently looks to be between 5-8 PM. However,
this depends on additional development occurring along the
ongoing thunderstorm complex along the MN/SD border. If this
development does not occur, a later round of thunderstorms
(possibly severe) looks more possible, closer to 7-10 PM. Wind
gusts over 40 kts are likely if the thunderstorm complex reaches
MSP this evening with gusts around 70 kts possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU PM...CHC MVFR -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind N 5-10 kts
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...ETA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
012030-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected early this evening, with damaging wind
gusts expected in the strongest storms. The potential for
destructive winds is highest across western and central Minnesota,
but the chance for severe weather still exists into eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon &
evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
527 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     Hail             Olivia                  44.77N 94.99W
07/31/2024  E1.00 Inch       Renville           MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
528 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     Hail             Donnelly                45.69N 96.00W
07/31/2024  E1.00 Inch       Stevens            MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

RMD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
533 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ065>067-312315-
McLeod MN-Sibley MN-Renville MN-
533 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN SIBLEY...SOUTHWESTERN
MCLEOD AND EASTERN RENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 533 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Hector, or 19 miles northeast of Redwood Falls,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hutchinson, Fairfax, Hector, Bird Island, Gibbon, Buffalo Lake,
Stewart, Lakeside, and Fernando.

This includes U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 81 and 105.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4457 9492 4484 9491 4488 9440 4448 9445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 274DEG 26KT 4472 9480

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
537 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     Hail             1 W St. Louis Park      44.96N 93.38W
07/31/2024  M1.25 Inch       Hennepin           MN   Public

            Half Dollar sized hail report provided by
            mPing.

&&

RMD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
542 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ070-077-078-312315-
Dakota MN-Rice MN-Goodhue MN-
542 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL GOODHUE AND NORTHEASTERN RICE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Northfield, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Northfield, Cannon Falls, Stanton, Castle Rock, Hampton, Randolph,
New Trier, and Lake Byllesby.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 71 and 74.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4454 9331 4455 9328 4458 9328 4465 9294
      4445 9289 4444 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 263DEG 14KT 4452 9316

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
610 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     Hail             3 NW Chokio             45.61N 96.21W
07/31/2024  M5.00 Inch       Stevens            MN   Public

            Delayed report, relayed via Emergency
            Manager.

&&

BED