Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Twin Cities, MN

329 
WWUS53 KMPX 311928
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
228 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC121-151-312000-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-240731T2000Z/
Pope MN-Swift MN-
228 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR POPE AND NORTHEASTERN SWIFT COUNTIES...

At 228 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles southeast of Starbuck to 5 miles east of Lake
Hassel, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Glenwood, Starbuck, Lake Hassel, Grove Lake, Villard, Gilchrist,
Westport, Sedan, Glenwood Airport, Monson Lake State Park, Swift
Falls, and Lake Minnewaska.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4549 9575 4551 9575 4566 9544 4576 9514
      4541 9513 4541 9525 4529 9525 4529 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 263DEG 49KT 4553 9541 4537 9547 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

651 
WWUS53 KMPX 311940
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
240 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC121-151-312000-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-240731T2000Z/
Pope MN-Swift MN-
240 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN POPE AND NORTHEASTERN SWIFT COUNTIES...

At 240 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Brooten, or 23 miles northwest of Willmar, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Grove Lake, Gilchrist, Sedan, Monson Lake State Park, Swift Falls,
and Glacial Lakes State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4554 9549 4562 9530 4564 9514 4541 9513
      4541 9526 4529 9525 4529 9542 4538 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 270DEG 37KT 4543 9524 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

329 
WWUS53 KMPX 311953
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
253 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC121-151-312002-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-240731T2000Z/
Pope MN-Swift MN-
253 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN POPE AND
NORTHEASTERN SWIFT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central and west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4554 9549 4562 9530 4564 9514 4541 9513
      4541 9526 4529 9525 4529 9542 4538 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 245DEG 29KT 4547 9513 

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
153 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced risk (3 of 5) today across western and southern
  Minnesota. The primary hazards include large hail and
  damaging wind gusts up to 80 MPH.

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon across western and
  central Minnesota, with uncertainty regarding potential
  secondary development this evening across SW & S Minnesota.

- Heat and Humidity continue through Saturday before cooler
  temperatures arrive the second half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

A regional view captures an mid-level wave on water vapor
imagery across central Dakotas. An ongoing mesoscale convective
system (MCS) is apparent over western Minnesota. This will our
immediate concern for severe weather this afternoon across west-
central Minnesota. The potential for additional development
further south remains uncertain at this time, but a high-end
instability (5000+ j/kg) is in place across much of central &
southern Minnesota. Forecast soundings indicate favorable
vertical shear, very steep mid level lapse rates 8.0-8.5C+ , and
elongated hodographs over western Minnesota. This environment
will be capable of producing both large hail (initially) and
damaging wind gust (60 mph+). Downdraft CAPE is not to be
overlooked with 1500+ j/kg present over much of the area, lining
up with moist low levels but drier air aloft that are able to
support severe wind gusts to potentially destructive (80 mph+).
SPC expanded the Enhanced risk (3 of 5) further NE with the
1630z update to better match recent observational trends. A
remnant elevated storm across the Dakotas has become better
organized over the past hour or two as it moves into a better
thermodynamic environment across eastern SD/western MN. The
storm has likely transitioned to surface-based storm as it taps
into extreme instability ahead of it. Radar imagery reveals our
line has began to exhibit bowing as it enters western Minnesota.
This would be indicative of a wind producing storm. Previous
observations across E SD show this line has a history of
producing 60 to 70 mph gusts. This line should continue to track
ENE impacting portions of western and central Minnesota. A
severe thunderstorm watch is out for portions of west-central MN
with the primary concern of damaging wind gusts, large hail.

There is some uncertainty with the southern extent of this line. The
better upper level forcing is confined to the northern portion of
the ongoing MCS. An approaching wave will provide additional upper
level forcing but it currently lags behind our MCS. We may not see
additional development on the initial ongoing MCS, but we could see
additional convection initiation across southwestern and southern
Minnesota late afternoon/evening as the better upper level support
arrives. The first MCS will add additional uncertainty with
convective debris (cirrus) impacting heating across portions of
southern Minnesota. The best odds for secondary development would
favor along and south of the Minnesota river. We are planning to
send up a special 19Z balloon launch at our office in Chanhassen to
better sample the convective environment ahead of the ongoing
storms. This should help answer a few of those remaining forecast
questions about this ongoing MCS and potential secondary development
this afternoon/evening over SW MN. I'll aim to send out an AFD
update later this today.

Thursday will feature a few lingering showers and thunderstorms
across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The main concern
with these storms will be the potential for brief bursts of heavy
rain and locally gusty winds. Temperatures will run a good 5 to 10
degrees cooler Thursday, but humidity will remain with dew point
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Showers and storms will
taper off Thursday evening and we'll begin to dry out for a day or
two. Friday will be dry and mostly sunny. High temperatures return
to the upper 80s and lower 90s with Tds in the 60s and lower 70s.

Saturday and Sunday will see the return of potential showers and
storms across the Upper Midwest. Saturday will be our final hot and
humid day for this forecast period with highs in the low 90s and low
70 dewpoints. There is some potential for low-end heat heat
headlines Saturday across western Minnesota and the Twin Cities
metro but it remains borderline for now. Our attention turns to a
weak surface boundary that is tied to an trough over NE NOAM east of
Hudson Bay. Storm development will be favored across northern
Minnesota Saturday evening before expanding further south as the
boundary sags south into central Minnesota. Sunday will bring a
renewed chance for showers and storms as a mid-level shortwave
provides another uptick of forcing along the quasi-stationary
boundary draped across the Upper Midwest. Potential for any severe
seems low at this time, but the finer details will be worked out
this weekend. Early next week looks to offer a most pleasant Summer
forecast for early August with temperatures in the 70s and 80s with
a break from annoying humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

The main concern through this evening will be the track and timing
of a thunderstorm complex capable of damaging winds. Current
radar has a cluster of severe storms along the central MN/SD
border, and this complex is expected to impact AXN & STC over
the next 1-3 hours. More uncertain is whether complex will build
more to the south, and potentially bring severe thunderstorm
impacts to RWF/MKT/MSP later this afternoon & early evening.
Winds in excess of 40 kts are expected with these thunderstorms
and potentially could gust as high as 70-80 kts. Current
thinking is that we will see additional development tot he south
of the ongoing complex, so have included a TEMPO for TSRA for
2-3 hours late this afternoon and early this evening. More
uncertain is the potential for thunderstorms this evening behind
the ongoing complex. The chance is lower wherever thunderstorms
occur this afternoon, but become much more likely at
RWF/MKT/MSP if the ongoing complex does not show any further
development. For now, have handled this with a PROB30 mention
but this will be upgraded or removed based on convective trends
later this afternoon.

After the precip tonight, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
early tomorrow morning & persist through much of the morning.

KMSP...Very complex forecast regarding thunderstorms chances
this afternoon & evening. The main window for thunderstorms and
severe wind gusts currently looks to be between 5-8 PM. However,
this depends on additional development occurring along the
ongoing thunderstorm complex along the MN/SD border. If this
development does not occur, a later round of thunderstorms
(possibly severe) looks more possible, closer to 7-10 PM. Wind
gusts over 40 kts are likely if the thunderstorm complex reaches
MSP this evening with gusts around 70 kts possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU PM...CHC MVFR -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind N 5-10 kts
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...ETA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
319 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
010830-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
319 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hot and humid conditions are expected today with heat indices
approaching 95-100 degrees.

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds in excess of 70 MPH
and large hail are likely this afternoon through this evening.
The potential for destructive winds is highest across western
Minnesota, but chances for severe weather still exist into eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
111 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ054-055-311900-
Lac Qui Parle MN-Swift MN-
111 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAC QUI PARLE AND
WESTERN SWIFT COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 111 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ortonville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lake Oliver around 140 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Louisburg, Big Stone
National Wildlife Refuge, Appleton Airport, and Holloway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4527 9645 4525 9640 4525 9629 4522 9627
      4519 9617 4520 9613 4518 9610 4541 9611
      4541 9597 4521 9589 4509 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 254DEG 31KT 4525 9642

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Borghoff

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
129 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 WSW Morris            45.57N 95.97W
07/31/2024  M54 MPH          Stevens            MN   AWOS

            AWOS station KMOX Morris AP.

&&

Borghoff

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
144 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Chokio                  45.58N 96.17W
07/31/2024                   Stevens            MN   Public

            A few tree branches up to 4 inches in
            diameter downed. Relayed via Emergency
            Manager.

&&

BED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
148 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ048-055-311945-
Pope MN-Swift MN-
148 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL POPE AND NORTHERN
SWIFT COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 148 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Oliver, or 18 miles east of Ortonville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Benson, Lake Hassel, Lake Oliver, Clontarf, De Graff, Danvers,
Holloway, Benson Airport, and Appleton Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 17 and 54.
 U.S. Highway 59 between mile markers 138 and 153.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4527 9611 4541 9612 4541 9575 4551 9547
      4523 9539 4522 9610 4524 9610 4524 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 259DEG 29KT 4531 9605

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Borghoff

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
158 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WSW Evansville        46.00N 95.73W
07/31/2024  M53 MPH          Douglas            MN   Mesonet

            Mesonet station MN133 I-94 - Evansville - Mp
            82.8.

0153 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SW Alexandria         45.87N 95.40W
07/31/2024  M54 MPH          Douglas            MN   ASOS

            ASOS station KAXN Alexandria MN ASOS.

&&

Borghoff