Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Twin Cities, MN

372 
WWUS53 KMPX 312258
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
558 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC085-129-143-312330-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-240731T2330Z/
Sibley MN-McLeod MN-Renville MN-
558 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN SIBLEY...SOUTHWESTERN MCLEOD AND NORTHEASTERN
RENVILLE COUNTIES...

At 558 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Buffalo Lake to 5 miles northwest of Gibbon,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Stewart around 605 PM CDT.
  Brownton around 615 PM CDT.
  Winthrop around 620 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Fernando, Hutchinson Airport, Lakeside, and Lake Marion Regional
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4489 9430 4453 9426 4457 9470 4485 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 267DEG 23KT 4480 9460 4460 9456 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BPH

011 
WWUS53 KMPX 312310
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
610 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC085-129-143-312330-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-240731T2330Z/
Sibley MN-McLeod MN-Renville MN-
610 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN SIBLEY...SOUTHWESTERN MCLEOD AND EAST CENTRAL
RENVILLE COUNTIES...

At 609 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Stewart to Winthrop, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Winthrop and Brownton around 615 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Fernando and Lake Marion Regional Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4455 9451 4479 9459 4481 9429 4453 9426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 272DEG 27KT 4474 9443 4454 9439 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BPH

894 
WWUS53 KMPX 312331
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
631 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC085-129-143-312338-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-240731T2330Z/
Sibley MN-McLeod MN-Renville MN-
631 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SIBLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN MCLEOD AND EAST CENTRAL RENVILLE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
630 PM CDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, small
hail and gusty winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
southern McLeod, eastern and central Sibley counties until 7:15pm. 

&&

LAT...LON 4455 9451 4479 9459 4481 9429 4453 9426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 263DEG 23KT 4475 9427 4455 9423 

$$

BPH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
153 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced risk (3 of 5) today across western and southern
  Minnesota. The primary hazards include large hail and
  damaging wind gusts up to 80 MPH.

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon across western and
  central Minnesota, with uncertainty regarding potential
  secondary development this evening across SW & S Minnesota.

- Heat and Humidity continue through Saturday before cooler
  temperatures arrive the second half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

A regional view captures an mid-level wave on water vapor
imagery across central Dakotas. An ongoing mesoscale convective
system (MCS) is apparent over western Minnesota. This will our
immediate concern for severe weather this afternoon across west-
central Minnesota. The potential for additional development
further south remains uncertain at this time, but a high-end
instability (5000+ j/kg) is in place across much of central &
southern Minnesota. Forecast soundings indicate favorable
vertical shear, very steep mid level lapse rates 8.0-8.5C+ , and
elongated hodographs over western Minnesota. This environment
will be capable of producing both large hail (initially) and
damaging wind gust (60 mph+). Downdraft CAPE is not to be
overlooked with 1500+ j/kg present over much of the area, lining
up with moist low levels but drier air aloft that are able to
support severe wind gusts to potentially destructive (80 mph+).
SPC expanded the Enhanced risk (3 of 5) further NE with the
1630z update to better match recent observational trends. A
remnant elevated storm across the Dakotas has become better
organized over the past hour or two as it moves into a better
thermodynamic environment across eastern SD/western MN. The
storm has likely transitioned to surface-based storm as it taps
into extreme instability ahead of it. Radar imagery reveals our
line has began to exhibit bowing as it enters western Minnesota.
This would be indicative of a wind producing storm. Previous
observations across E SD show this line has a history of
producing 60 to 70 mph gusts. This line should continue to track
ENE impacting portions of western and central Minnesota. A
severe thunderstorm watch is out for portions of west-central MN
with the primary concern of damaging wind gusts, large hail.

There is some uncertainty with the southern extent of this line. The
better upper level forcing is confined to the northern portion of
the ongoing MCS. An approaching wave will provide additional upper
level forcing but it currently lags behind our MCS. We may not see
additional development on the initial ongoing MCS, but we could see
additional convection initiation across southwestern and southern
Minnesota late afternoon/evening as the better upper level support
arrives. The first MCS will add additional uncertainty with
convective debris (cirrus) impacting heating across portions of
southern Minnesota. The best odds for secondary development would
favor along and south of the Minnesota river. We are planning to
send up a special 19Z balloon launch at our office in Chanhassen to
better sample the convective environment ahead of the ongoing
storms. This should help answer a few of those remaining forecast
questions about this ongoing MCS and potential secondary development
this afternoon/evening over SW MN. I'll aim to send out an AFD
update later this today.

Thursday will feature a few lingering showers and thunderstorms
across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The main concern
with these storms will be the potential for brief bursts of heavy
rain and locally gusty winds. Temperatures will run a good 5 to 10
degrees cooler Thursday, but humidity will remain with dew point
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Showers and storms will
taper off Thursday evening and we'll begin to dry out for a day or
two. Friday will be dry and mostly sunny. High temperatures return
to the upper 80s and lower 90s with Tds in the 60s and lower 70s.

Saturday and Sunday will see the return of potential showers and
storms across the Upper Midwest. Saturday will be our final hot and
humid day for this forecast period with highs in the low 90s and low
70 dewpoints. There is some potential for low-end heat heat
headlines Saturday across western Minnesota and the Twin Cities
metro but it remains borderline for now. Our attention turns to a
weak surface boundary that is tied to an trough over NE NOAM east of
Hudson Bay. Storm development will be favored across northern
Minnesota Saturday evening before expanding further south as the
boundary sags south into central Minnesota. Sunday will bring a
renewed chance for showers and storms as a mid-level shortwave
provides another uptick of forcing along the quasi-stationary
boundary draped across the Upper Midwest. Potential for any severe
seems low at this time, but the finer details will be worked out
this weekend. Early next week looks to offer a most pleasant Summer
forecast for early August with temperatures in the 70s and 80s with
a break from annoying humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

The main concern through this evening will be the track and timing
of a thunderstorm complex capable of damaging winds. Current
radar has a cluster of severe storms along the central MN/SD
border, and this complex is expected to impact AXN & STC over
the next 1-3 hours. More uncertain is whether complex will build
more to the south, and potentially bring severe thunderstorm
impacts to RWF/MKT/MSP later this afternoon & early evening.
Winds in excess of 40 kts are expected with these thunderstorms
and potentially could gust as high as 70-80 kts. Current
thinking is that we will see additional development tot he south
of the ongoing complex, so have included a TEMPO for TSRA for
2-3 hours late this afternoon and early this evening. More
uncertain is the potential for thunderstorms this evening behind
the ongoing complex. The chance is lower wherever thunderstorms
occur this afternoon, but become much more likely at
RWF/MKT/MSP if the ongoing complex does not show any further
development. For now, have handled this with a PROB30 mention
but this will be upgraded or removed based on convective trends
later this afternoon.

After the precip tonight, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
early tomorrow morning & persist through much of the morning.

KMSP...Very complex forecast regarding thunderstorms chances
this afternoon & evening. The main window for thunderstorms and
severe wind gusts currently looks to be between 5-8 PM. However,
this depends on additional development occurring along the
ongoing thunderstorm complex along the MN/SD border. If this
development does not occur, a later round of thunderstorms
(possibly severe) looks more possible, closer to 7-10 PM. Wind
gusts over 40 kts are likely if the thunderstorm complex reaches
MSP this evening with gusts around 70 kts possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU PM...CHC MVFR -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind N 5-10 kts
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...ETA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
012030-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected early this evening, with damaging wind
gusts expected in the strongest storms. The potential for
destructive winds is highest across western and central Minnesota,
but the chance for severe weather still exists into eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon &
evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
513 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ066>069-312245-
McLeod MN-Carver MN-Sibley MN-Scott MN-
513 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SIBLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT...EAST CENTRAL MCLEOD AND SOUTHWESTERN CARVER
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 513 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Norwood Young America, or 20 miles southeast of
Hutchinson, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Waconia, Glencoe, Norwood Young America, Cologne, Green Isle,
Hamburg, Plato, Glencoe Airport, and Minnesota Valley State
Recreation Area.

This includes U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 117 and 126.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4472 9422 4488 9416 4482 9365 4454 9386
      4454 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 290DEG 27KT 4476 9401

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
515 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     Hail             3 SSW Minneapolis       44.94N 93.30W
07/31/2024  M1.00 Inch       Hennepin           MN   Public

            Mix of quarter and dime sized hail in St.
            Louis Park, MN.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
525 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Hail             3 NNW Northfield        44.49N 93.18W
07/31/2024  M0.75 Inch       Dakota             MN   Public

            Measurement provided by trained spotter and
            time estimated via radar.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
527 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     Hail             Olivia                  44.77N 94.99W
07/31/2024  E1.00 Inch       Renville           MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
528 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     Hail             Donnelly                45.69N 96.00W
07/31/2024  E1.00 Inch       Stevens            MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

RMD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
533 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ065>067-312315-
McLeod MN-Sibley MN-Renville MN-
533 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN SIBLEY...SOUTHWESTERN
MCLEOD AND EASTERN RENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 533 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Hector, or 19 miles northeast of Redwood Falls,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hutchinson, Fairfax, Hector, Bird Island, Gibbon, Buffalo Lake,
Stewart, Lakeside, and Fernando.

This includes U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 81 and 105.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4457 9492 4484 9491 4488 9440 4448 9445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 274DEG 26KT 4472 9480

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH