Alert archive / Iowa / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 563

December 15, 20215 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 15, 2021, 1:23 PM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 15, 2021, 1:23 PM CST (19:23 UTC)
Expired
Dec 15, 2021, 8:00 PM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
80 kt
All 145 counties

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Buena Vista County, IA, Butler County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Clay County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Ida County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Lyon County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monona County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Page County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Polk County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Sac County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Webster County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Worth County, IA, Wright County, IA, Brown County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Washington County, KS, Blue Earth County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Martin County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Steele County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Worth County, MO, Adams County, NE, Boone County, NE, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Clay County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Gage County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Howard County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Madison County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Polk County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 28 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
70%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
40%
Ten or more severe wind reports
90%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
70%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

106 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 15, 1:24 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatGIDJewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Smith66 min
Dec 15, 1:30 PM CSTTornado WarningGIDAdams, Franklin, Webster15 min
Dec 15, 1:43 PM CSTTornado WarningGIDAdams17 min
Dec 15, 1:45 PM CSTTornado WarningGIDAdams, Clay, Webster15 min
Dec 15, 1:45 PM CSTTornado WarningGIDBuffalo, Hall, Howard15 min
Dec 15, 1:57 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatTOPCloud, Ottawa, Republic48 min
Dec 15, 1:57 PM CSTTornado WarningGIDAdams, Hall, Hamilton, Merrick18 min
Dec 15, 2:03 PM CSTTornado WarningGIDClay, Hamilton12 min
Dec 15, 2:08 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatGIDClay, Fillmore, Greeley, Hall, Hamilton, Howard and 7 more52 min
Dec 15, 2:14 PM CSTTornado WarningGIDHamilton, Merrick, Polk, York16 min
Dec 15, 2:19 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatOAXAntelope, Boone, Butler, Colfax, Madison, Pierce and 2 more56 min
Dec 15, 2:22 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatGIDHamilton, Howard, Merrick, Nance, Polk, York38 min
Dec 15, 2:26 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatOAXButler, Gage, Jefferson, Lancaster, Saline, Saunders and 1 more64 min
Dec 15, 2:32 PM CSTTornado WarningGIDHamilton, Merrick, Nance, Polk13 min
Dec 15, 2:39 PM CSTTornado WarningGIDNance9 min
Dec 15, 2:39 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXBoone, Madison, Platte, Stanton24 min
Dec 15, 2:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatTOPClay, Cloud, Dickinson, Marshall, Ottawa, Republic and 2 more48 min
Dec 15, 2:43 PM CSTTornado WarningGIDMerrick, Polk17 min
Dec 15, 2:45 PM CSTTornado WarningGIDPolk, York15 min
Dec 15, 2:50 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXColfax, Platte40 min
Dec 15, 2:54 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatOAXCass, Dodge, Douglas, Gage, Johnson, Lancaster and 5 more81 min
Dec 15, 2:59 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXButler, Colfax, Dodge, Platte31 min
Dec 15, 3:06 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXMadison, Platte, Stanton24 min
Dec 15, 3:09 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatOAXBurt, Butler, Colfax, Cuming, Dodge, Saunders and 4 more51 min
Dec 15, 3:13 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatOAXAntelope, Cedar, Colfax, Knox, Madison, Pierce and 3 more62 min
Dec 15, 3:19 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatTOPClay, Dickinson, Geary, Jackson, Marshall, Nemaha and 4 more41 min
Dec 15, 3:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatFSDPlymouth, Woodbury67 min
Dec 15, 3:23 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXLancaster, Seward16 min
Dec 15, 3:25 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXColfax, Cuming, Stanton35 min
Dec 15, 3:29 PM CSTTornado WarningTOPDickinson, Geary, Riley13 min
Dec 15, 3:29 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXMadison, Stanton, Wayne31 min
Dec 15, 3:33 PM CSTTornado WarningTOPPottawatomie, Riley15 min
Dec 15, 3:35 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatOAXFremont, Harrison, Mills, Pottawattamie70 min
Dec 15, 3:41 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatOAXHarrison, Monona64 min
Dec 15, 3:45 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXDouglas, Saunders30 min
Dec 15, 3:45 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedOAXCuming, Thurston45 min
Dec 15, 3:54 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatTOPBrown, Geary, Jackson, Marshall, Nemaha, Pottawatomie and 3 more51 min
Dec 15, 3:54 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedOAXDodge, Douglas, Washington28 min
Dec 15, 3:55 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatOAXFremont, Harrison, Mills, Montgomery, Page, Pottawattamie and 1 more80 min
Dec 15, 3:57 PM CSTTornado WarningTOPJackson, Pottawatomie10 min
Dec 15, 3:59 PM CSTTornado WarningFSDDakota, Dixon31 min
Dec 15, 4:00 PM CSTTornado WarningFSDWoodbury45 min
Dec 15, 4:01 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXFremont, Mills14 min
Dec 15, 4:03 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatEAXDoniphan72 min
Dec 15, 4:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatFSDBuena Vista, Cherokee, Ida, Plymouth, Woodbury55 min
Dec 15, 4:10 PM CSTTornado WarningTOPNemaha, Pottawatomie20 min
Dec 15, 4:11 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXNemaha, Pawnee, Richardson34 min
Dec 15, 4:12 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXFremont, Mills33 min
Dec 15, 4:13 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatDMXAdair, Adams, Audubon, Cass, Guthrie, Ringgold and 2 more77 min
Dec 15, 4:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatDMXCarroll, Crawford, Sac74 min
Dec 15, 4:16 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXHarrison, Pottawattamie17 min
Dec 15, 4:17 PM CSTTornado WarningFSDPlymouth, Woodbury28 min
Dec 15, 4:21 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXPottawattamie24 min
Dec 15, 4:26 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatFSDPlymouth, Woodbury34 min
Dec 15, 4:30 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXMills, Montgomery, Pottawattamie30 min
Dec 15, 4:31 PM CSTTornado WarningFSDIda, Plymouth, Woodbury29 min
Dec 15, 4:31 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXHarrison, Monona, Shelby13 min
Dec 15, 4:32 PM CSTTornado WarningFSDPlymouth, Woodbury28 min
Dec 15, 4:33 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatTOPBrown, Jackson, Jefferson, Shawnee27 min
Dec 15, 4:37 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedDMXCass23 min
Dec 15, 4:37 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedOAXHarrison, Shelby23 min
Dec 15, 4:42 PM CSTTornado WarningFSDBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Ida, O'Brien, Plymouth and 1 more33 min
Dec 15, 4:43 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatEAXAtchison, Doniphan62 min
Dec 15, 4:44 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXCrawford36 min
Dec 15, 4:46 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXPottawattamie, Shelby20 min
Dec 15, 4:51 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatFSDO'Brien, Sioux39 min
Dec 15, 4:51 PM CSTTornado WarningEAXDoniphan39 min
Dec 15, 4:53 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXAdair, Audubon, Cass, Guthrie33 min
Dec 15, 4:54 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXMontgomery, Page15 min
Dec 15, 4:54 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatTOPBrown, Douglas, Jackson, Jefferson, Shawnee51 min
Dec 15, 4:55 PM CSTTornado WarningOAXShelby14 min
Dec 15, 4:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatFSDBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Ida46 min
Dec 15, 5:03 PM CSTTornado WarningEAXAtchison, Doniphan27 min
Dec 15, 5:07 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXSac27 min
Dec 15, 5:08 PM CSTTornado WarningFSDBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay37 min
Dec 15, 5:10 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatDMXAdair, Audubon, Boone, Dallas, Greene, Guthrie and 4 more80 min
Dec 15, 5:10 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXCarroll, Crawford35 min
Dec 15, 5:12 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatEAXDoniphan78 min
Dec 15, 5:14 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXAudubon, Calhoun, Carroll, Greene, Guthrie31 min
Dec 15, 5:15 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXCalhoun, Carroll, Crawford, Sac30 min
Dec 15, 5:15 PM CSTTornado WarningFSDBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, O'Brien30 min
Dec 15, 5:18 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedDMXAdair, Boone, Dallas, Greene, Guthrie42 min
Dec 15, 5:19 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatDMXBoone, Calhoun, Carroll, Emmet, Greene, Humboldt and 5 more71 min
Dec 15, 5:22 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatDMXCarroll, Crawford, Sac23 min
Dec 15, 5:22 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatDMXAdair, Adams, Clarke, Decatur, Madison, Ringgold and 3 more68 min
Dec 15, 5:25 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatMPXBlue Earth, Faribault, Martin, Watonwan35 min
Dec 15, 5:29 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatFSDDickinson46 min
Dec 15, 5:36 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXCalhoun, Humboldt, Kossuth, Palo Alto, Pocahontas24 min
Dec 15, 5:38 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedDMXBoone, Calhoun, Greene, Hamilton, Webster37 min
Dec 15, 5:45 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXCalhoun, Pocahontas, Webster30 min
Dec 15, 5:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatDMXBoone, Franklin, Hamilton, Hancock, Hardin, Humboldt and 6 more53 min
Dec 15, 5:58 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXHancock, Humboldt, Kossuth, Palo Alto, Pocahontas32 min
Dec 15, 6:13 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAppanoose, Clarke, Decatur, Lucas, Marion, Monroe and 2 more62 min
Dec 15, 6:19 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXHancock, Kossuth, Winnebago41 min
Dec 15, 6:24 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatDMXClarke, Dallas, Jasper, Lucas, Madison, Mahaska and 5 more66 min
Dec 15, 6:24 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatEAXDaviess, Grundy, Harrison, Mercer, Putnam, Sullivan66 min
Dec 15, 6:30 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatDMXBlack Hawk, Bremer, Butler, Cerro Gordo, Franklin, Grundy and 6 more75 min
Dec 15, 6:37 PM CSTTornado WarningDMXButler, Cerro Gordo, Franklin20 min
Dec 15, 6:40 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXFaribault, Freeborn50 min
Dec 15, 6:47 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatDMXGrundy, Hardin, Marshall, Story43 min
Dec 15, 6:55 PM CSTTornado WarningMPXFaribault, Freeborn35 min
Dec 15, 7:03 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatEAXAdair, Carroll, Chariton, Grundy, Linn, Livingston and 7 more87 min
Dec 15, 7:07 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXBlue Earth, Le Sueur, Waseca38 min
Dec 15, 7:09 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatDMXAppanoose, Davis, Jasper, Lucas, Mahaska, Marion and 5 more66 min
Dec 15, 7:18 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXRice, Steele42 min
Dec 15, 7:44 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatDMXBlack Hawk, Bremer, Butler, Grundy, Tama27 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 28 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2021-12-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2021-12-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 346 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2165 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
346 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
384 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

089 
WWUS20 KWNS 151921
SEL3  
SPC WW 151921
IAZ000-KSZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 563
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western and central Iowa
  Northeastern Kansas
  South central Minnesota
  Northwestern Missouri
  Easterm Nebraska
  Extreme southeastern South Dakota

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM
  until 800 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90
    mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A developing squall line will move rapidly northeastward
from northern Kansas and Nebraska across Iowa and adjacent areas of
Minnesota and Missouri through this evening.  Widespread damaging
winds are expected, with peak gusts near 90 mph possible.  A mix of
embedded supercells and smaller-scale circulations in the line will
also pose a threat for tornadoes, with a strong tornado or two
possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles
north and south of a line from 15 miles southwest of Hastings NE to
50 miles south southeast of Mason City IA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23060.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 15, 12:28 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Boone, Buena Vista and 59 more2 hr
Dec 15, 3:55 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Boone, Buena Vista, Calhoun and 40 more95 min
Dec 15, 4:51 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Benton, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Cedar and 24 more114 min
Dec 15, 5:16 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Boone, Buena Vista, Calhoun and 30 more119 min
Dec 15, 5:30 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAllamakee, Benton, Buchanan, Cedar, Chickasaw, Clayton and 23 more6 hr
Dec 15, 2:29 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Butler and 34 more2 hr
Dec 15, 2:30 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCloud, Marshall, Nemaha, Republic, Washington90 min
Dec 15, 3:18 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 24 more5 hr
Dec 15, 5:01 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Butler and 28 more89 min
Dec 15, 5:30 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee90 min
Dec 15, 4:05 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Cherry, Hooker, Keya Paha, Thomas3 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2021Tornado Watches in Nebraska, 2021Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.