Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Omaha, NE

559 
WWUS53 KOAX 152136
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
336 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

NEC021-023-037-039-053-155-167-173-177-179-152200-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0198.000000T0000Z-211215T2200Z/
Burt NE-Wayne NE-Cuming NE-Colfax NE-Washington NE-Dodge NE-
Thurston NE-Butler NE-Saunders NE-Stanton NE-
336 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST
FOR SOUTHWESTERN BURT...SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE...CUMING...NORTHEASTERN
COLFAX...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...DODGE...WESTERN THURSTON...
NORTHEASTERN BUTLER...NORTHWESTERN SAUNDERS AND SOUTHEASTERN STANTON
COUNTIES...

At 334 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Pilger to near Dodge to near North Bend, moving
northeast at 80 mph.

THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS!

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters have reported downed trees and 
         power lines with these storms.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

These severe storms will be near...
  West Point and Wisner around 340 PM CST.
  Scribner, Hooper and Nickerson around 345 PM CST.
  Pender, Lyons and Bancroft around 350 PM CST.
  Emerson and Uehling around 355 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Dead
Timber State Recreation Area, The Highway 15 And 32 Junction,
Linwood, Winslow, The Highway 9 And 51 Junction, Rogers, 7 Miles
North Of North Bend, Morse Bluff, Oakland and 10 Miles West Of West
Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread 
wind damage. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay 
away from windows.
 
&&

LAT...LON 4156 9623 4145 9668 4132 9691 4168 9702
      4186 9719 4227 9685 4226 9673 4228 9672
      4228 9669
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 223DEG 68KT 4196 9706 4175 9683 4144 9676 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

$$

BLB

182 
WWUS53 KOAX 152158
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE
358 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

NEC021-023-037-039-053-155-167-173-177-179-152207-
/O.EXP.KOAX.SV.W.0198.000000T0000Z-211215T2200Z/
Burt NE-Wayne NE-Cuming NE-Colfax NE-Washington NE-Dodge NE-
Thurston NE-Butler NE-Saunders NE-Stanton NE-
358 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN BURT...
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE...CUMING...NORTHEASTERN COLFAX...NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...DODGE...WESTERN THURSTON...NORTHEASTERN BUTLER...
NORTHWESTERN SAUNDERS AND SOUTHEASTERN STANTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 400 PM CST...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty 
winds are still expecteds through the evening.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for northeastern
and east central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4156 9623 4145 9668 4132 9691 4168 9702
      4186 9719 4227 9685 4226 9673 4228 9672
      4228 9669
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 226DEG 61KT 4222 9669 4201 9646 4170 9639 

$$

Mangels

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
200 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

...Updated Mesoscale Forecast Discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

A Tornado Watch has been issued for much of eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa. Temperatures have soared into the 70s and dew point
temperatures are in the upper 50s. Storms are currently ongoing
in south central Nebraska where tornado and thunderstorm warnings
have been issued. The storms have a forward motion to the
northeast at approximately 80 mph. Widespread damaging winds are
expected with peak wind gusts up to 90 mph possible. Impressive
shear and storm relative helicity values will aid smaller scale
circulations within the squall line leading to a risk for
tornadoes.

After the squall line has passed through, there may be a lull in
wind gusts, but it will only be temporary. Sustained wind speeds
of 30 to 40 mph are expected through the afternoon and into the
evening. Peak wind gusts of up to 70 mph are forecast between 4 PM
and 8 PM. This will be several hours of severe criteria winds
which could lead to damage to trees, power lines, and some
structures. Power outages are likely. Winds are expected to begin
to decrease after 8 PM, but 40 mph gusts are forecast up until
midnight, after which the winds gusts should drop to lower than 20
mph.

Along the NE/SD border, light snow with accumulations under an
inch are possible. Blowing snow leading to reduced visibilities
due to strong winds and snowfall could result in hazardous
travel.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

.Synopsis:

A highly impactful weather system is set to affect the entire
forecast area today, with prolonged damaging winds gusts, areas of
extreme fire danger, severe weather, and brief whiteout conditions
all being possible hazards.

Today:

Water vapor imagery this morning places a very progressive,
neutrally-tilted upper trough over the Intermountain West, with
broad southwesterly flow at the all levels over the central CONUS.
This trough is expected progress to the lee of the Rockies by late
morning, beginning a rapid deepening process throughout the day. A
surface center of low pressure is expected to develop and travel
from the Nebraska Panhandle across northern Nebraska/souther
South Dakota, dragging a very strong dryline ahead of a cold front
to the west of it. As the system deepens, the mid/upper flow is
expected to become negatively-tilted, inducing strong moisture
flux into the area and general warm air advection as extremely
strong wind fields in the lower levels develop as the system
deepens. Deep mixing and extremely impressive low-level winds are
going to allow for efficient momentum transfer to the surface.
Wind gusts values are expected to land in the 60 to 75 mph range
this afternoon, with the strongest winds being associated with a
southwest to westerly sting jet that wraps around the dry conveyor
belt. Power outages, damage to trees/power poles/potentially
structures, and hazardous travel conditions for any vehicles are
expected. To put this system in context, the large majority of
fields available (such as surface temperatures, sustained winds,
and gust) are at the very top of the ECMWF model reanalysis for
this time of year; going back 20 years.

The next piece of the hazard puzzle comes in the form of extreme
fire danger, associated with the strong winds and low relative
humidity values behind the dryline. As the dryline passes through
the area, portions of southeast Nebraska are going to see dewpoints
fall by as much as 44 degrees over the course of an hour or two.
Arcing power lines and sparks from vehicles or machinery could serve
as a source of ignition while winds gust to over 70 mph in spots
collocated with minimum relative humidity values as low as 12%. The
main are of concern for extreme and uncontrollable fire behavior is
generally south of a line from Columbus to Harlan, and also has Red
Flag Warning in place beginning at noon.

With the strong moisture flux ahead of the dry line, dewpoints ahead
of the surface low and dryline top out in the low-to-upper 50's
assisting MLCAPE values reach values as high as 900 J/kg in far
northeastern Nebraska, with bulk shear values well upwards of 60
kts. Current CAM runs indicate that the main convective mode will
take the form of a line of showers and storms along the main
boundary, reinforcing the primary wind threat. Sufficient
curvature exists in the low-level hodographs to support a tornado
threat embedded in the main line of storms as well, with the main
area of concern being in northeastern Nebraska into north-central
Iowa. A lower-probability scenario is the possibility of a more
discrete, quick-moving tornadic supercell or two where the main
pressure falls are expected with the advancement of the surface
low. The main failure mode of the latter scenario will be the
difficulty that a consistent updraft will be sustained despite the
very strong shear and entrainment. The main timeframe for severe
weather in the CWA will be from 2 to 7 PM.

A complicating factor to the forecast associated with the wraparound
moisture will come in the form of snow along the backside of the
surface low, where wind speeds will still be strong as much cooler
temperatures push south; introducing the possibility of brief
whiteout conditions. The chances for this happening currently look
to stay north of a line from Albion to Pender. These rapid-onset
whiteout conditions are often accompanied by a flash freeze of road
temperatures, creating extremely hazardous travel conditions if
they manifest. The main timeframe for this hazard looks to be from
5 to 9 PM.

The overall weather even is expected to wind down late this evening
into the overnight hours, with wind gusts returning to sub-30 mph
speeds by sunrise.

.Thursday into Early Next Week:

Going forward into the forecast period quiet weather is expected as
the mid/upper pattern modulates between zonal to southwesterly flow.
Little chance for meaningful precipitation are forecast, as the
main weather makers miss our neck of the woods to the
north/south/east. Highs will generally stay above-average, and in
the low-to mid 40's for much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Extremely strong wind gusts will occur this TAF period with peak
wind gusts of 50 to 60 kts. The strongest winds are expected to
occur between 22Z and 02Z. There are signals from the HRRR/RAP/FV3
that wind gusts could be stronger than forecast. A line of
thunderstorms are also forecast to move through the area this
afternoon. That line of storms will be moving quickly with speeds
up to 80 mph.

The strong winds will not end with the storms. A wind shift is
expected from the south to the southwest, and eventually to the
northwest. Severe criteria winds are expected to persist for
several hours. Ceilings may briefly drop down MVFR criteria with
the passage of the thunderstorms. Skies will quickly clear up
afterward.

There is likely not to be a typical updated afternoon general AFD.
Next update will be on the overnight. There will be an updated
aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for NEZ050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for IAZ069-079-080-
     090-091.

&&

MESOSCALE...Fajman
DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Fajman

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
127 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

IAZ069-079-080-090-091-NEZ050>053-065>068-078-088>093-161930-
Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-Butler-Saunders-
Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-
Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
127 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest Iowa,
east central Nebraska, and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There are several weather threats today.

A Tornado Watch is in effect from 1 PM until 8 PM. Strong to
severe storms are likely this afternoon, including wind gusts in
excess of 70 to 80 mph with a few tornadoes possible. Storms will
develop quickly and may move up to 85 mph.

A High Wind Warning is in effect from from 12 PM Wednesday
morning through 9 PM Wednesday evening. The strongest winds are
expected to arrive by noon and beyond.

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the afternoon and early
evening.

An intense storm system will move through the region Wednesday.
Widespread wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph are likely, with potential
for peak gusts of 75 mph. A few severe storms and dangerous fire
weather conditions are also possible Wednesday afternoon. Areas of
blowing dust may also occur with reduced visibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Strong winds and dangerous fire conditions will linger into the
evening, then improve shortly after midnight.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IAZ043-055-056-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-161930-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-
Boone-Madison-Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-
127 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, east central Nebraska, and northeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There are several weather threats today.

A Tornado Watch is in effect from 1 PM until 8 PM. Strong to
severe storms are likely this afternoon, including wind gusts in
excess of 70 to 80 mph with a few tornadoes possible. Storms will
develop quickly and may move up to 85 mph.

A High Wind Warning is in effect from from 12 PM Wednesday
morning through 9 PM Wednesday evening. The strongest winds are
expected to arrive by noon and beyond.

An intense storm system will move through the region Wednesday.
Widespread wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph are likely, with potential
for peak gusts of 75 mph. A few severe storms are also possible on
Wednesday afternoon. Brief whiteout conditions are possible with
snow northwest of a line from Albion to Pender. Areas of blowing
dust may also occur with reduced visibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Strong winds will linger into the evening, then improve shortly
after midnight.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
244 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SE FORT CALHOUN       41.42N 95.97W
12/15/2021  M63 MPH          WASHINGTON         NE   MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
259 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N REYNOLDS            40.15N 97.36W
12/15/2021                   JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEMI TRUCK BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 136.

&&

PEARSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW FAIRBURY          40.13N 97.21W
12/15/2021  M80 MPH          JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

TSN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
307 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 S FRIEND              40.54N 97.28W
12/15/2021                   SALINE             NE   PUBLIC

            WIND STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK LIMBS THAT ARE
            2-3 INCHES. HAIL WAS NICKEL SIZE.

&&

PEARSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W FAIRBURY            40.15N 97.27W
12/15/2021                   JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEMI BLOWN OVER.

&&

TSN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             COLUMBUS                41.44N 97.35W
12/15/2021  E1.25 INCH       PLATTE             NE   PUBLIC

&&

SF