Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564

December 15, 202130 counties in Kansas; 10 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Dec 15, 2021, 3:18 PM CST for 30 counties in Kansas; 10 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 15, 2021, 3:18 PM CST (21:18 UTC)
Expired: Dec 15, 2021, 8:00 PM CST
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 0.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 40 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Atchison County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Elk County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Labette County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marion County, KS, Miami County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Morris County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Osage County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Cass County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Platte County, MO, Ray County, MO

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 5%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 60%

Warnings issued inside it

31 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 15, 3:19 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	TOP	Clay, Dickinson, Geary, Jackson, Marshall, Nemaha and 4 more	41 min
Dec 15, 3:29 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TOP	Dickinson, Geary, Riley	13 min
Dec 15, 3:39 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	TOP	Geary, Morris, Wabaunsee	51 min
Dec 15, 3:54 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	TOP	Brown, Geary, Jackson, Marshall, Nemaha, Pottawatomie and 3 more	51 min
Dec 15, 4:11 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	ICT	Butler, Chase, Greenwood, Sedgwick	94 min
Dec 15, 4:20 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	TOP	Lyon, Morris, Osage, Shawnee, Wabaunsee	40 min
Dec 15, 4:33 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	TOP	Brown, Jackson, Jefferson, Shawnee	27 min
Dec 15, 4:35 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	TOP	Coffey, Lyon, Osage	40 min
Dec 15, 4:43 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	EAX	Atchison, Doniphan	62 min
Dec 15, 4:53 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	TOP	Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson, Lyon, Osage, Shawnee and 1 more	37 min
Dec 15, 4:54 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	TOP	Brown, Douglas, Jackson, Jefferson, Shawnee	51 min
Dec 15, 4:57 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	ICT	Butler, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Sumner	78 min
Dec 15, 5:03 PM CST	Tornado Warning	EAX	Atchison, Doniphan	27 min
Dec 15, 5:09 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	TOP	Franklin, Osage	36 min
Dec 15, 5:12 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Harrison and 3 more	78 min
Dec 15, 5:15 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	TOP	Anderson, Coffey, Franklin, Lyon, Osage	45 min
Dec 15, 5:18 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	EAX	Atchison, Leavenworth, Wyandotte	57 min
Dec 15, 5:22 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	ICT	Elk, Greenwood, Wilson, Woodson	53 min
Dec 15, 5:24 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	TOP	Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson, Osage, Shawnee	36 min
Dec 15, 5:31 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	EAX	Johnson, Miami	44 min
Dec 15, 5:42 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	TOP	Franklin, Osage	33 min
Dec 15, 5:54 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	TOP	Anderson, Coffey, Franklin, Osage	36 min
Dec 15, 5:57 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Douglas, Franklin	18 min
Dec 15, 6:00 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	EAX	Johnson, Wyandotte	45 min
Dec 15, 6:06 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Allen, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Labette, Montgomery and 3 more	84 min
Dec 15, 6:11 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	EAX	Linn, Miami	64 min
Dec 15, 6:15 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	EAX	Wyandotte	60 min
Dec 15, 6:24 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	EAX	Daviess, Grundy, Harrison, Mercer, Putnam, Sullivan	66 min
Dec 15, 6:35 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	EAX	Carroll, Jackson, Lafayette	40 min
Dec 15, 6:43 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	EAX	Cass, Jackson, Johnson	47 min
Dec 15, 7:08 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	EAX	Bates, Carroll, Cass, Chariton, Cooper, Henry and 7 more	82 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1036 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 466 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 477 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

811 
WWUS20 KWNS 152115
SEL4  
SPC WW 152115
KSZ000-MOZ000-160100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 564
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Kansas
  West central  and northwest Missouri

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM
  until 700 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...A narrow squall line will continue to spread eastward
through the afternoon and early evening, with the potential for
occasional damaging gusts of 60-70 mph.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of
Manhattan KS to 55 miles east northeast of Saint Joseph MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 563...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24050.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 15, 12:28 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Doniphan, Marshall, Nemaha, Republic, Washington	2 hr
Dec 15, 1:23 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Jackson, Jewell and 8 more	7 hr
Dec 15, 2:29 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Butler and 34 more	2 hr
Dec 15, 2:30 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cloud, Marshall, Nemaha, Republic, Washington	90 min
Dec 15, 3:55 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Doniphan, Jackson, Nemaha, Pottawatomie	95 min
Dec 15, 5:01 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Butler and 28 more	89 min
Dec 15, 5:30 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cherokee	90 min
Dec 15, 4:51 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Scotland	114 min
Dec 15, 5:30 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Clark, Scotland	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2021 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.