Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 2035
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 15, 2021, 5:30 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 90 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 15, 2021, 5:30 PM CST (23:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 15, 2021, 7:00 PM CST
- In force
- 90 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch needed soon
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 66 counties
Adams County, IL, Cherokee County, KS, Adair County, MO, Audrain County, MO, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Christian County, MO, Clark County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Knox County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Maries County, MO, Marion County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pike County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Taney County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Warren County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Ottawa County, OK
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 18 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -12 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 757 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 330 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 354 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
872
ACUS11 KWNS 152331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152330
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160100-
Mesoscale Discussion 2035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021
Areas affected...Portions of southwest into northeast Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon
Valid 152330Z - 160100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Several severe wind gusts (a few over 65+ kt) are expected
across central Missouri as a mature squall line with a history
significant severe winds approaches from the west. A WW issuance
will be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...A mature squall line with embedded supercells is
rapidly progressing across extreme northwest MO/eastern KS and is
expected to enter central MO over the next couple of hours. The
squall line has a history of several severe gusts, including
measurements over 65 kts. The 986 mb surface low across northeast NE
continues to deepen while tracking towards MN. Current thinking is
that better deep-layer ascent/buoyancy and the corridor of most
significant severe will gradually shift northeast with the low
through the evening. However, the severe wind threat is expected to
persist with the KS/MO segment of the squall for at least a few more
hours, which would include areas east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
564. As such, a WW issuance will be needed soon.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...
LAT...LON 36939506 40049363 40509262 40669197 40539163 40009116
39459086 39109082 37569203 37019247 36619310 36419364
36469426 36589497 36939506SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 4:51 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Henderson, Jo Daviess, Mercer, Rock Island | 114 min |
| Dec 15, 5:30 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bureau, Carroll, Hancock, Henderson, Henry, Jo Daviess and 7 more | 6 hr |
| Dec 15, 12:28 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Doniphan, Marshall, Nemaha, Republic, Washington | 2 hr |
| Dec 15, 1:23 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Jackson, Jewell and 8 more | 7 hr |
| Dec 15, 2:29 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Butler and 34 more | 2 hr |
| Dec 15, 2:30 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cloud, Marshall, Nemaha, Republic, Washington | 90 min |
| Dec 15, 3:18 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 24 more | 5 hr |
| Dec 15, 3:55 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Doniphan, Jackson, Nemaha, Pottawatomie | 95 min |
| Dec 15, 5:01 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Butler and 28 more | 89 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.