Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566

December 15, 20215 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Dec 15, 2021, 6:00 PM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 15, 2021, 6:00 PM CST (00:00 UTC)
Expired
Dec 16, 2021, 12:00 AM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 87 counties

Benton County, AR, Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Cass County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Knox County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Pike County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Linn County, KS, Adair County, MO, Audrain County, MO, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Christian County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Knox County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Maries County, MO, Marion County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Pike County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Shelby County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Taney County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Warren County, MO, Webster County, MO, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 15, 6:11 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatEAXLinn, Miami64 min
Dec 15, 6:15 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatEAXCaldwell, Carroll, Clay, Clinton, Daviess, Livingston and 1 more60 min
Dec 15, 6:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBourbon59 min
Dec 15, 6:24 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatEAXDaviess, Grundy, Harrison, Mercer, Putnam, Sullivan66 min
Dec 15, 6:35 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatEAXCarroll, Jackson, Lafayette40 min
Dec 15, 6:43 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatEAXCass, Jackson, Johnson47 min
Dec 15, 7:03 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatEAXAdair, Carroll, Chariton, Grundy, Linn, Livingston and 7 more87 min
Dec 15, 7:08 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBourbon, Crawford67 min
Dec 15, 7:08 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatEAXBates, Carroll, Cass, Chariton, Cooper, Henry and 7 more82 min
Dec 15, 7:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFSt. Clair33 min
Dec 15, 8:01 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatLSXKnox, Lewis, Marion, Monroe, Ralls, Shelby44 min
Dec 15, 8:10 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSANowata, Osage, Washington50 min
Dec 15, 8:25 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCooper, Howard, Randolph35 min
Dec 15, 8:34 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXAudrain, Boone, Callaway, Moniteau, Monroe, Ralls41 min
Dec 15, 9:09 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXAdams, Pike51 min
Dec 15, 9:22 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXAdams, Brown53 min
Dec 15, 9:48 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXAdams, Brown, Calhoun, Pike42 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 227 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-12-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 9 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-12-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 310 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
9 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-387 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1246 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
310 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
677 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

453 
WWUS20 KWNS 152357
SEL6  
SPC WW 152357
ARZ000-ILZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-160600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 566
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
600 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northwest Arkansas
  West Central Illinois
  Southeast Kansas
  Central and Southwest Missouri
  Northeast Oklahoma

* Effective this Wednesday night from 600 PM until Midnight CST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over eastern Kansas will track
eastward across the watch area this evening.  The strongest cores
along the line will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest
of Quincy IL to 40 miles southwest of Grove OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 563...WW 564...WW 565...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24040.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 15, 9:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll87 min
Dec 16, 2:08 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland and 29 more3 hr
Dec 15, 9:44 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBoone, Lee, Ogle, Winnebago3 hr
Dec 15, 7:14 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Linn, Montgomery and 1 more91 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Illinois, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.