Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 2039
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 15, 2021, 9:48 PM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 15, 2021, 9:48 PM CST (03:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 15, 2021, 11:15 PM CST
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 566
All 71 counties
Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Cass County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Knox County, IL, Logan County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Menard County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Pike County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Warren County, IL, Cherokee County, KS, Audrain County, MO, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Cole County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Maries County, MO, Marion County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Osage County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pike County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Warren County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK
The radar
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 153 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 207 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 9 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -387 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1246 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 54 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 310 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 677 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
822
ACUS11 KWNS 160348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160348
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160515-
Mesoscale Discussion 2039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021
Areas affected...portions of far western Illinois...northeast to
southwest Missouri...far northeastern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566...
Valid 160348Z - 160515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566
continues.
SUMMARY...A few damaging/severe gusts remain possible for a few more
hours with a squall line. Damaging gusts will be more likely across
east-central Missouri into western IL, where synoptic forcing is
greater. A local WW extension may be needed in parts of central IL.
DISCUSSION...A broken squall line continues to produce occasional
damaging or severe gusts despite a gradual decline in intensity
noted over the past couple of hours. Buoyancy is on the wane across
portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley, with synoptic-scale upper
support drifting northeast with the surface low into the Upper
Mississippi Valley. However, intense low-level winds (70+ kt at 1 km
AGL) prevail ahead of the squall line, so any downward momentum
transport in the stronger convective cores can easily support severe
gusts. The severe threat is expected to persist for a few more
hours, especially across eastern MO into central IL, where
relatively stronger forcing for ascent is present. As such, local WW
extension may be needed in parts of central IL should the line hold
together.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 36239662 37119497 38929224 40859105 41249055 41088980
40818932 40348911 39438976 38249098 37169217 36259337
36119405 36019538 36239662SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 6:00 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Benton | 6 hr |
| Dec 16, 2:08 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland and 29 more | 3 hr |
| Dec 15, 9:44 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Boone, Lee, Ogle, Winnebago | 3 hr |
| Dec 15, 7:14 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Linn, Montgomery and 1 more | 91 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.