Mesoscale Discussion 2041

Issued

Dec 16, 2021, 2:08 PM CST (20:08 UTC)

Expired

Dec 16, 2021, 4:45 PM CST

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

729 
ACUS11 KWNS 162009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162008 
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-162245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021

Areas affected...Portions of the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 162008Z - 162245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated/marginal severe threat may exist this
afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A cold front is draped southwest to northeast across
the ArkLaTex and Mid-South this afternoon. Modestly enhanced
low/mid-level southwesterly winds are forecast to gradually weaken
though the remainder of the day. Still, enough flow remains to
support around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Even with cloud
cover prevalent across much of the warm sector, filtered diurnal
heating of a moist low-level airmass is supporting MLCAPE generally
ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. The better large-scale ascent aloft will
remain displaced well to the north, with limited low-level
convergence along the cold front owing to a large degree of
front-parallel flow aloft. Still, isolated to scattered storms will
remain possible through the rest of the afternoon. The combination
of sufficient instability and deep-layer shear should be adequate
for some storm organization, with occasional strong/gusty winds
capable of producing mainly tree damage the main threat. An instance
or two of marginally severe hail and perhaps a brief tornado also
appears possible. Given the expectation for the overall severe
threat to remain isolated/marginal, watch issuance is unlikely.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 12/16/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32359540 32809552 32989515 34069405 34299375 34809253
            35259170 35639077 35659009 35388983 34988993 33849047
            33329129 32739277 32189527 32359540

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.