Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 2033
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 15, 2021, 5:01 PM CST for 34 counties in Kansas; 37 counties in Missouri; 7 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 15, 2021, 5:01 PM CST (23:01 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 15, 2021, 6:30 PM CST
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 564
All 78 counties
Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Atchison County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Brown County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Elk County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Labette County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Miami County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Osage County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Dade County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Holt County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Polk County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Craig County, OK, Grant County, OK, Kay County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Washington County, OK
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1036 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 466 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 477 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
812
ACUS11 KWNS 152302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152301
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-160030-
Mesoscale Discussion 2033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021
Areas affected...portions of far eastern Kansas into western
Missouri and extreme northeast Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564...
Valid 152301Z - 160030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564
continues.
SUMMARY...Widespread damaging winds (including 65+ kt gusts) remain
a concern across eastern Kansas into Missouri over the next few
hours. A couple of tornadoes also remain possible.
DISCUSSION...An intense squall line has developed across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and is approaching the KS/MO border with a 50
kt forward speed. Several severe wind gusts (some around 65 kts)
have been reported over the past hour or so. Given the 60+ kt
synoptic-scale 925 mb flow occurring in proximity to the squall,
downward momentum transport in the stronger storm cores embedded in
the line will continue to support the potential for several
additional severe gusts, with at least a few significant severe (65+
kt) gusts expected over the next few hours. Transient supercell
structures have also developed within the squall, with up to 400
m2/s2 effective SRH residing ahead of the line, suggesting that a
couple of tornadoes could also occur with the more sustained,
dominant supercell structures.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36759786 39049623 40099569 40419468 40299355 39819288
39039262 38209292 37439353 36869426 36629545 36549635
36759786SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 12:28 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Doniphan, Marshall, Nemaha, Republic, Washington | 2 hr |
| Dec 15, 1:23 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Jackson, Jewell and 8 more | 7 hr |
| Dec 15, 2:29 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Butler and 34 more | 2 hr |
| Dec 15, 2:30 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cloud, Marshall, Nemaha, Republic, Washington | 90 min |
| Dec 15, 3:18 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 24 more | 5 hr |
| Dec 15, 3:55 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Doniphan, Jackson, Nemaha, Pottawatomie | 95 min |
| Dec 15, 5:30 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee | 90 min |
| Dec 15, 4:51 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Scotland | 114 min |
| Dec 15, 5:30 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Clark, Scotland | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.