Mesoscale Discussion 2030

Issued

Dec 15, 2021, 3:55 PM CST (21:55 UTC)

Expired

Dec 15, 2021, 5:30 PM CST

In force

95 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Tornado watch 563

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

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995 
ACUS11 KWNS 152156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152155 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-152330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern KS...eastern
NE...northwestern MO...western/central IA...and far southeastern SD

Concerning...Tornado Watch 563...

Valid 152155Z - 152330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 563 continues.

SUMMARY...Widespread damaging winds of 60-85+ mph and the potential
for a few tornadoes will spread quickly eastward into
western/central Iowa and northwestern Missouri this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures ahead of a QLCS across eastern NE and
northeastern KS have recently warmed into the mid 60s to mid 70s,
with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s. This
squall line is expected to remain well organized in the short term
given 60-70+ kt of effective bulk shear present across the warm
sector. Strong low/mid-level flow attendant to an ejecting shortwave
trough will continue to reach the surface through convective
downdraft accelerations. Numerous severe wind gusts of 60-85 mph
have been observed at multiple surface sites over the past hour or
so across northeastern KS and eastern NE. Potential exists for even
stronger gusts given 60-70 kt of flow present around 850 mb. Indeed,
a recent wind gust to 93 mph was reported at KLNK (Lincoln, NE) as
the line moved through. Widespread severe/damaging winds are
expected to remain prominent as this line of storms races quickly
east-northeastward into western/central IA, northwestern MO, and
vicinity over the next couple of hours. Multiple embedded
mesovorticies have been noted within the line, as low-level shear
remains enhanced (effective SRH around 300-400 m2/s2). A few
tornadoes will also remain a threat, especially with any embedded
supercell within the line, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Gleason.. 12/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39139663 40519635 41919673 42449745 43469673 43479419
            42089350 41189352 40649379 40079422 39429559 39139663

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.