Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 2031

December 15, 20215 counties in Nebraska; Todd County, South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 15, 2021, 4:05 PM CST for 5 counties in Nebraska; Todd County, South Dakota. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 15, 2021, 4:05 PM CST (22:05 UTC)
Expired
Dec 15, 2021, 7:00 PM CST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Blizzard

Counties Brown County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keya Paha County, NE, Thomas County, NE, Todd County, SD

The radar

The North Platte radar (KLNX), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 12:00Z on 2021-12-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 12:00Z on 2021-12-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 127 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2654 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
127 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
111 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

202 
ACUS11 KWNS 152206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152205 
NEZ000-SDZ000-160100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Areas affected...Northern Nebraska

Concerning...Blizzard 

Valid 152205Z - 160100Z

SUMMARY...Persistent, strong northwesterly winds behind a cold front
may continue to support areas of blizzard conditions across parts of
northern Nebraska. While snow accumulations may be modest, areas of
reduced visibility down to one-quarter mile is probable.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations from northern NE have shown
periods of heavy snow and reduced visibility down to one-quarter
mile over the past 30-60 minutes. While these conditions have been
somewhat localized, strong frontogenesis is occurring within the
925-700 mb layer along a southeastward-surging cold front that will
continue to support areas of moderate snowfall across the region for
at least the next couple of hours. Additionally, modest instability
over the region (250-500 J/kg MUCAPE per recent mesoanalyses) should
support pockets of heavier snowfall. More importantly, strong
northwesterly winds behind the cold front will persist into the
early evening hours with gusts up to 45-55 mph. Given these
temperature/wind combinations, blowing snow model probabilities
suggests areas of blizzard conditions will continue to be probable -
especially over areas with ongoing snowfall.

..Moore.. 12/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42260142 42960125 43280065 43349998 42899970 42559973
            42110011 41560061 41620103 41920133 42260142

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 15, 12:28 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Boone, Burt, Butler, Cass, Cedar and 36 more2 hr
Dec 15, 1:23 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Boone, Burt, Butler, Cass, Cedar and 37 more7 hr
Dec 15, 2:30 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Burt, Butler, Cass, Colfax, Cuming and 28 more90 min
Dec 15, 3:55 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBurt, Cass, Cedar, Dakota, Dixon, Douglas and 9 more95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.