Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 2034

December 15, 202136 counties in Iowa; Faribault County, Freeborn County, Martin County, Minnesota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 15, 2021, 5:16 PM CST for 36 counties in Iowa; Faribault County, Freeborn County, Martin County, Minnesota. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 15, 2021, 5:16 PM CST (23:16 UTC)
Expired
Dec 15, 2021, 7:15 PM CST
In force
119 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 563
All 39 counties

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Boone County, IA, Buena Vista County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Greene County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Madison County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Polk County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Sac County, IA, Story County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Warren County, IA, Webster County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Worth County, IA, Wright County, IA, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Martin County, MN

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 180 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2021-12-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2021-12-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 346 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2165 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
346 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
384 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

305 
ACUS11 KWNS 152316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152316 
IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-160115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2034
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Areas affected...much of central and northern Iowa...far southern
Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 563...

Valid 152316Z - 160115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 563 continues.

SUMMARY...Damage is likely to occur in association with a rapidly
moving line of storms across Iowa, northern Missouri, and eventually
far southern Minnesota, with a few fast-moving tornadoes possible as
well.

DISCUSSION...A particularly damaging line of storms currently
extends from a low over northwest IA southward into northwest MO and
eastern KS, and is moving east/northeast at 75-85 mph. Several
measured sig-severe wind gusts have been measured recently, and this
is likely to continue. Further, effective SRH currently ranges from
400-600 m2/s2 across western IA and points south, suggesting brief,
but possibly fast-moving embedded QLCS tornadoes are clearly a
threat. Destabilization due to the spread of a moist air mass will
eventually occur over southern MN behind a diffuse warm front, and
tornadoes will be a concern as the low continues to deepen.

..Jewell.. 12/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   40719490 41329482 41839497 42529526 42949570 42999574
            43409534 43799466 44029337 43789311 43109308 42209314
            41509318 40999345 40709392 40499447 40489471 40569492
            40719490

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 15, 12:28 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Boone, Buena Vista and 59 more2 hr
Dec 15, 1:23 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Black Hawk, Boone and 64 more7 hr
Dec 15, 3:55 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Boone, Buena Vista, Calhoun and 40 more95 min
Dec 15, 4:51 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Benton, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Cedar and 24 more114 min
Dec 15, 5:30 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAllamakee, Benton, Buchanan, Cedar, Chickasaw, Clayton and 23 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.