Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437

August 13, 202134 counties in New York; 17 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 13, 2021, 3:29 PM EDT for 34 counties in New York; 17 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 13, 2021, 3:29 PM EDT (19:29 UTC)
Expired
Aug 13, 2021, 10:01 PM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 51 counties

Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Pike County, PA, Potter County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
5%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

20 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 13, 3:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYFulton, Montgomery44 min
Aug 13, 3:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPDauphin, Juniata, Northumberland, Perry, Snyder29 min
Aug 13, 3:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChemung, Tioga39 min
Aug 13, 4:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMSchuyler, Steuben13 min
Aug 13, 4:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Tioga48 min
Aug 13, 4:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Lycoming, Sullivan60 min
Aug 13, 4:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYSaratoga46 min
Aug 13, 5:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Chenango, Delaware22 min
Aug 13, 5:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChemung, Tioga36 min
Aug 13, 5:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Lycoming, Sullivan31 min
Aug 13, 5:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYFulton, Montgomery, Schoharie47 min
Aug 13, 5:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Chenango, Delaware38 min
Aug 13, 5:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMDelaware46 min
Aug 13, 6:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMDelaware, Otsego19 min
Aug 13, 6:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMDelaware, Sullivan48 min
Aug 13, 6:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYAlbany45 min
Aug 13, 7:15 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningALYAlbany2 hr
Aug 13, 7:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYAlbany, Rensselaer35 min
Aug 13, 8:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYDutchess, Ulster47 min
Aug 13, 8:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYColumbia, Dutchess45 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-08-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 239 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-08-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 31 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
239 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-124 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
879 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
27 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

535 
WWUS20 KWNS 131926
SEL7  
SPC WW 131926
NYZ000-PAZ000-140300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and Eastern New York
  Northeast Pennsylvania

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
  1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to form and intensify across the
watch area, in a hot and humid environment.  Storms will persist
through the early evening, with a risk of hail and damaging winds in
the strongest cells.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest
of Elmira NY to 25 miles east northeast of Albany NY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 436...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 13, 2:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBroome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Essex and 19 more87 min
Aug 13, 7:14 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbany, Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia and 29 more61 min
Aug 12, 10:08 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBerks, Bucks, Carbon, Chester, Columbia, Cumberland and 22 more67 min
Aug 13, 12:33 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton, Lancaster and 3 more87 min
Aug 13, 1:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Berks, Chester, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin and 6 more7 hr
Aug 13, 4:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Fayette and 9 more5 hr
Aug 13, 4:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChester87 min
Aug 13, 7:49 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Cambria, Clarion and 13 more56 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.