Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436

August 13, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 13, 2021, 1:11 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 13, 2021, 1:11 PM EDT (17:11 UTC)
Expired
Aug 13, 2021, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 104 counties

Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Washington County, MD, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Perry County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, York County, PA, Albemarle County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Henry County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Jefferson County, WV

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
5%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
50%

Warnings issued inside it

66 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 13, 1:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXRockingham47 min
Aug 13, 1:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAllegany, Washington47 min
Aug 13, 1:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAugusta, Rockingham, City of Harrisonburg, City of Staunton30 min
Aug 13, 2:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, Cumberland, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata and 2 more63 min
Aug 13, 2:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick, Shenandoah, City of Winchester42 min
Aug 13, 2:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXPage, Rockingham, Shenandoah, City of Harrisonburg41 min
Aug 13, 2:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXRockingham22 min
Aug 13, 2:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKRockbridge29 min
Aug 13, 2:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXWashington35 min
Aug 13, 2:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAlbemarle, Augusta, Nelson, City of Waynesboro24 min
Aug 13, 2:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAlbemarle, Augusta, Greene, Page, Rockingham50 min
Aug 13, 2:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXClarke, Frederick, Warren34 min
Aug 13, 3:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAugusta, Nelson23 min
Aug 13, 3:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatLWXGreene, Madison, Orange25 min
Aug 13, 3:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKPittsylvania49 min
Aug 13, 3:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, Franklin63 min
Aug 13, 3:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCumberland, Perry61 min
Aug 13, 3:16 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatLWXAlbemarle, Augusta, Nelson, City of Waynesboro100 min
Aug 13, 3:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAlbemarle, Augusta, Nelson, City of Waynesboro42 min
Aug 13, 3:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick, Shenandoah, Warren25 min
Aug 13, 3:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXGreene, Madison, Orange, Page45 min
Aug 13, 3:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPYork40 min
Aug 13, 3:35 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatLWXOrange3 hr
Aug 13, 3:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick39 min
Aug 13, 3:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPDauphin, Juniata, Northumberland, Perry, Snyder29 min
Aug 13, 3:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCumberland, Dauphin, Perry47 min
Aug 13, 3:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery40 min
Aug 13, 3:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAlbemarle, Greene, Madison, Orange52 min
Aug 13, 3:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAmherst, Appomattox, Buckingham61 min
Aug 13, 4:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXNelson43 min
Aug 13, 4:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery40 min
Aug 13, 4:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York53 min
Aug 13, 4:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatLWXFauquier, Prince William47 min
Aug 13, 4:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatLWXCarroll, Howard, Montgomery45 min
Aug 13, 4:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQFluvanna, Louisa44 min
Aug 13, 4:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatLWXFauquier, Prince William43 min
Aug 13, 4:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatLWXCulpeper, Fauquier27 min
Aug 13, 4:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, City of Baltimore48 min
Aug 13, 4:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery29 min
Aug 13, 4:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George's, City of Baltimore41 min
Aug 13, 4:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Harford41 min
Aug 13, 4:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBuckingham27 min
Aug 13, 4:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Harford46 min
Aug 13, 5:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQAmelia, Cumberland, Fluvanna, Goochland, Hanover, Louisa and 1 more45 min
Aug 13, 5:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery, Prince George's49 min
Aug 13, 5:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatLWXFauquier, Prince William31 min
Aug 13, 5:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFauquier, Prince William, Stafford, City of Manassas44 min
Aug 13, 5:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Harford, City of Baltimore40 min
Aug 13, 5:22 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXHarford38 min
Aug 13, 5:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Calvert, Prince George's50 min
Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatLWXAnne Arundel, Prince George's25 min
Aug 13, 5:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCecil, Harford24 min
Aug 13, 5:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCharles, Montgomery, Prince George's49 min
Aug 13, 6:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Prince George's44 min
Aug 13, 6:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCaroline, Essex42 min
Aug 13, 6:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCharles40 min
Aug 13, 6:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Calvert, Prince George's45 min
Aug 13, 6:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIQueen Anne's, Talbot25 min
Aug 13, 6:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCharles42 min
Aug 13, 6:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICaroline, Queen Anne's30 min
Aug 13, 7:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCalvert, Charles, Saint Mary's39 min
Aug 13, 7:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's34 min
Aug 13, 7:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICaroline, Queen Anne's33 min
Aug 13, 7:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQDorchester52 min
Aug 13, 7:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCalvert, Saint Mary's21 min
Aug 13, 7:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICaroline47 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 20 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 313 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -11 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
313 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-199 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1675 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-11 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
58 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

400 
WWUS20 KWNS 131708
SEL6  
SPC WW 131708
DCZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-140000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
110 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Maryland
  Southeast Pennsylvania
  Central and Northern Virginia
  Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until
  800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon and spread eastward across the watch
area.  While storms will likely be rather disorganized, the
strongest cells will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northeast of
Harrisburg PA to 55 miles south southwest of Lynchburg VA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28020.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 13, 12:33 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Charles, Frederick, Harford and 5 more87 min
Aug 13, 4:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Cecil, Charles, Harford, Howard and 2 more87 min
Aug 13, 6:02 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWicomico, Worcester58 min
Aug 12, 10:08 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBerks, Bucks, Carbon, Chester, Columbia, Cumberland and 22 more67 min
Aug 13, 2:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradford, Cameron, Clinton, Lycoming, Potter, Sullivan and 2 more87 min
Aug 13, 3:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBradford, Clinton, Columbia, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Lycoming and 11 more7 hr
Aug 13, 4:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Fayette and 9 more5 hr
Aug 13, 7:14 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradford, Columbia, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Lycoming, Monroe and 9 more61 min
Aug 13, 7:49 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Cambria, Clarion and 13 more56 min
Aug 13, 1:13 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison and 15 more2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maryland, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.