Alert archive / New Mexico / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373

July 11, 2021Cochise County, Graham County, Greenlee County, Arizona; 20 counties in New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 11, 2021, 1:23 PM MST for Cochise County, Graham County, Greenlee County, Arizona; 20 counties in New Mexico. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 11, 2021, 1:23 PM MST (20:23 UTC)
Expired
Jul 11, 2021, 9:00 PM MST
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 23 counties

Cochise County, AZ, Graham County, AZ, Greenlee County, AZ, Bernalillo County, NM, Catron County, NM, Cibola County, NM, Doña Ana County, NM, Grant County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Hidalgo County, NM, Los Alamos County, NM, Luna County, NM, Mora County, NM, Otero County, NM, Rio Arriba County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Sandoval County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Sierra County, NM, Socorro County, NM, Taos County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Valencia County, NM

The radar

The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

53 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 11, 1:39 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningABQMora, Taos3 hr
Jul 11, 1:39 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero51 min
Jul 11, 2:03 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQLos Alamos, Rio Arriba, Sandoval57 min
Jul 11, 2:05 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQMora, Rio Arriba, Taos42 min
Jul 11, 2:26 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero49 min
Jul 11, 2:35 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQSandoval40 min
Jul 11, 2:44 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningABQRio Arriba, Sandoval3 hr
Jul 11, 3:12 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero48 min
Jul 11, 3:16 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZSierra21 min
Jul 11, 3:23 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero37 min
Jul 11, 3:27 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero48 min
Jul 11, 3:31 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZGrant33 min
Jul 11, 3:42 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQMcKinley, Sandoval63 min
Jul 11, 3:47 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningEPZGrant6 hr
Jul 11, 3:50 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero40 min
Jul 11, 4:01 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQSanta Fe25 min
Jul 11, 4:03 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero28 min
Jul 11, 4:14 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero46 min
Jul 11, 4:16 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero44 min
Jul 11, 4:21 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana39 min
Jul 11, 4:22 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQSocorro38 min
Jul 11, 4:25 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero50 min
Jul 11, 4:26 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana, Otero49 min
Jul 11, 4:29 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQCibola, McKinley38 min
Jul 11, 4:29 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZSierra46 min
Jul 11, 4:33 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero42 min
Jul 11, 4:49 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero41 min
Jul 11, 5:01 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero44 min
Jul 11, 5:05 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana, Otero, Sierra40 min
Jul 11, 5:08 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCGreenlee37 min
Jul 11, 5:08 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero52 min
Jul 11, 5:13 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana, Sierra47 min
Jul 11, 5:19 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana, Otero26 min
Jul 11, 5:24 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningEPZSierra3 hr
Jul 11, 5:28 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana, Otero47 min
Jul 11, 5:30 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQColfax, Harding, Mora, Union45 min
Jul 11, 5:33 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero42 min
Jul 11, 5:43 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana, Sierra47 min
Jul 11, 5:50 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQGuadalupe, Torrance40 min
Jul 11, 6:00 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana, Otero45 min
Jul 11, 6:06 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana39 min
Jul 11, 6:16 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero29 min
Jul 11, 6:31 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana, Otero44 min
Jul 11, 6:39 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQSocorro36 min
Jul 11, 6:45 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana, Otero30 min
Jul 11, 6:52 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCGraham38 min
Jul 11, 6:55 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQHarding, Mora, San Miguel52 min
Jul 11, 6:57 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana, Sierra48 min
Jul 11, 7:11 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana49 min
Jul 11, 7:19 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningABQSocorro3 hr
Jul 11, 7:26 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningEPZDoña Ana3 hr
Jul 11, 7:28 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana29 min
Jul 11, 7:43 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningABQCatron3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 41 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM at 12:00Z on 2021-07-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1032 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM at 12:00Z on 2021-07-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 106 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1032 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-167 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1687 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
312 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

724 
WWUS20 KWNS 112020
SEL3  
SPC WW 112020
AZZ000-NMZ000-TXZ000-120400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Arizona
  Western and Central New Mexico
  Far West Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
  1000 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will
continue to develop initially over the mountains this afternoon, and
subsequently drift generally south-southwestward toward southern New
Mexico/far West Texas and far southeast Arizona through the late
afternoon and evening. Instances of severe hail and wind can be
expected.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northeast of
Cuba NM to 35 miles south southwest of Deming NM. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 371...WW 372...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
01020.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 10, 6:55 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGila, Graham, Maricopa, Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz2 hr
Jul 11, 3:59 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGila, Yavapai2 hr
Jul 10, 7:49 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColfax, Harding, Mora86 min
Jul 11, 9:48 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEddy, Lea87 min
Jul 11, 10:16 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCChaves, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Roosevelt7 hr
Jul 11, 12:33 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBernalillo, Chaves, De Baca, Doña Ana, Eddy, Grant and 12 more87 min
Jul 11, 4:18 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDoña Ana, Otero87 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Mexico, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arizona, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.