Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1255
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 11, 2021, 10:48 AM MDT for Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 6 counties in Texas. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 11, 2021, 10:48 AM MDT (16:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 11, 2021, 12:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
Counties Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Culberson County, TX, Loving County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 160 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 964 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -244 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1122 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 1 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 34 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted.
334
ACUS11 KWNS 111649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111648
TXZ000-NMZ000-111815-
Mesoscale Discussion 1255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Areas affected...Southeast NM...far West TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 111648Z - 111815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A small area of strong/severe storms may continue for the
next few hours with damaging winds and large hail the primary risks.
Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
possible prior to 18z.
DISCUSSION...A small area of severe thunderstorms has developed over
portions of Chaves and Lea Counties in southeast NM since 15z.
Seasonably high low-level moisture and substantial heating have
resulted in moderate/strong MLCAPE, and northwesterly mid-level flow
averaging 20 kts is sufficient for updraft organization. In the
short term, these storms may persist and congeal into a small
cluster while moving generally south/southeast, with a continued
severe wind/hail risk given destabilization of the downstream
environment and strengthening effective shear values this afternoon.
Convective trends are being monitored, and a watch is possible prior
to 18z.
..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 32650480 33480404 33500370 33190278 32020279 31350311
31030355 30870408 31240497 32650480SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 8:49 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Colfax, Harding, Mora | 86 min |
| Jul 11, 11:16 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chaves, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Roosevelt | 7 hr |
| Jul 11, 1:33 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bernalillo, Chaves, De Baca, Doña Ana, Eddy, Grant and 12 more | 87 min |
| Jul 11, 2:23 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bernalillo, Catron, Cibola, Doña Ana, Grant, Guadalupe and 14 more | 8 hr |
| Jul 11, 5:18 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Doña Ana, Otero | 87 min |
| Jul 10, 8:21 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Wichita | 84 min |
| Jul 10, 8:35 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Cooke, Foard, Grayson and 5 more | 5 hr |
| Jul 10, 10:56 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cooke, Grayson, Hardeman, Montague, Wichita and 1 more | 94 min |
| Jul 11, 1:46 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Collin, Denton, Foard and 6 more | 29 min |
| Jul 11, 5:51 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Cherokee, Coke, Concho, Coryell and 22 more | 84 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.