Mesoscale Discussion 1262

Issued

Jul 11, 2021, 6:51 PM CDT (23:51 UTC)

Expired

Jul 11, 2021, 8:15 PM CDT

In force

84 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

703 
ACUS11 KWNS 112351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112351 
TXZ000-120115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

Areas affected...Southwest/Central/East-Central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 112351Z - 120115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely persist in the vicinity of a
stationary front extending across much of central TX. A few strong
to severe storms are possible, but minimal anticipated severe
coverage merits low watch probability.

DISCUSSION...A weak stationary boundary arcs from about 30 miles
south of BGS to about 20 miles south of ACT and then back
northeastward towards GGG. Thunderstorms started developing along
the western portion of this boundary about 2 hours ago and have
gradually spread farther eastward with time. The air mass in the
vicinity of this boundary is moderately to strongly unstable, but
weakly sheared. This area is also displaced southward/westward of
the better forcing for ascent. These factors have led to somewhat
shorter duration updraft cores that struggle to maintain strength
away from the boundary. Even so, low-level convergence along the
boundary amid the very moist air mass will likely result in
continued storm development. Cell mergers may result in an updraft
or two strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging wind gusts. 

There is some potential for cold pool amalgamation, which could then
result in a forward-propagating convective line and a more coherent,
spatially extensive severe threat. However, low potential for this
scenario merits low watch probabilities at this time. Nevertheless,
convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32010125 31659836 32599524 32529436 31719458 30839705
            30820029 31320141 32010125

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.