Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1257
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 11, 2021, 1:33 PM MDT for 18 counties in New Mexico; 11 counties in Texas. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 11, 2021, 1:33 PM MDT (19:33 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 11, 2021, 3:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 371
All 29 counties
Bernalillo County, NM, Chaves County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Doña Ana County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Grant County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Los Alamos County, NM, Luna County, NM, Otero County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Sandoval County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Sierra County, NM, Socorro County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Valencia County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Terry County, TX, Winkler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1032 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -167 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1687 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 106 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 312 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.7
The text
As transmitted.
141
ACUS11 KWNS 111934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111933
TXZ000-NMZ000-112100-
Mesoscale Discussion 1257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Areas affected...Portions of central/southeast NM...West TX
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 371...
Valid 111933Z - 112100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 371
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for large hail and damaging winds continues
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 371, and conditions are being
monitored for an additional watch that will likely be needed across
central/southwest portions of NM by 2030z.
DISCUSSION...Strong/severe storms were in progress as of 1925z in
the vicinity of the TX/NM border west/southwest of Lubbock. These
storms were along a slow-moving front/outflow boundary, where strong
MLCAPE and 25-30 kts of northerly shear will support a continued
severe risk with both supercell and multicell/cluster storm
structures. Hail up to the size of half dollars and measured gusts
to 65 mph have recently been reported, and severe hail and damaging
winds will remain possible this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm
development is likely over the watch area during next few hours in
the largely uncapped environment, aided by frontal/outflow boundary
convergence and a moist upslope flow.
Farther west, Isolated thunderstorms have developed over the higher
terrain over north-central and south-central/southwest NM, where
seasonably high moisture has contributed to moderate buoyancy.
Northerly mid-level flow will also favor organized storms this
afternoon and evening with severe hail and wind likely with the
strongest storms. Convective trends are being monitored for the
possibility of an additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch prior to
2030z.
..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 35550766 36320634 35980534 34610516 34190365 33640189
32890182 31680185 31830302 31900433 31780587 31830667
32400898 35550766SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 8:49 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Colfax, Harding, Mora | 86 min |
| Jul 11, 10:48 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Eddy, Lea | 87 min |
| Jul 11, 11:16 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chaves, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Roosevelt | 7 hr |
| Jul 11, 2:23 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bernalillo, Catron, Cibola, Doña Ana, Grant, Guadalupe and 14 more | 8 hr |
| Jul 11, 5:18 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Doña Ana, Otero | 87 min |
| Jul 10, 8:21 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Wichita | 84 min |
| Jul 10, 8:35 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Cooke, Foard, Grayson and 5 more | 5 hr |
| Jul 10, 10:56 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cooke, Grayson, Hardeman, Montague, Wichita and 1 more | 94 min |
| Jul 11, 1:46 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Collin, Denton, Foard and 6 more | 29 min |
| Jul 11, 5:51 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Cherokee, Coke, Concho, Coryell and 22 more | 84 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.