Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1252
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 10, 2021, 8:49 PM MDT for Colfax County, Harding County, Mora County, New Mexico. It was in force for 86 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 10, 2021, 8:49 PM MDT (02:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 10, 2021, 10:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 86 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Colfax County, NM, Harding County, NM, Mora County, NM
The radar
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 148 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1410 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -96 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2560 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 50 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 187 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 5.1
The text
As transmitted.
458
ACUS11 KWNS 110249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110249
NMZ000-110415-
Mesoscale Discussion 1252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 110249Z - 110415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and perhaps a strong wind gust will be
possible with near surface-based supercells moving southeastward in
northeast New Mexico. No WW is expected.
DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed along the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains in northeast New Mexico. With perhaps only subtle
upper-level support, the longevity of this activity is in question.
However, under this steep mid-level lapse rate, northwest flow
regime, 35-40 kts of effective shear could help sustain these
southeastward moving storms longer than expected. Should storms
persist they would encounter greater buoyancy. Isolated large hail
would likely be the main threat with these storms, though a strong
wind gust could also occur before surface stabilization becomes
stronger. Given the uncertainty, no WW is expected.
..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36020525 36330548 36720489 36390395 35620322 35260326
35040379 34940433 36020525SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 10:48 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Eddy, Lea | 87 min |
| Jul 11, 11:16 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chaves, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Roosevelt | 7 hr |
| Jul 11, 1:33 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bernalillo, Chaves, De Baca, Doña Ana, Eddy, Grant and 12 more | 87 min |
| Jul 11, 2:23 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bernalillo, Catron, Cibola, Doña Ana, Grant, Guadalupe and 14 more | 8 hr |
| Jul 11, 5:18 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Doña Ana, Otero | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.