Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1261

July 11, 2021Doña Ana County, Otero County, New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 11, 2021, 5:18 PM MDT for Doña Ana County, Otero County, New Mexico. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 11, 2021, 5:18 PM MDT (23:18 UTC)
Expired
Jul 11, 2021, 6:45 PM MDT
In force
87 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 373

Counties Doña Ana County, NM, Otero County, NM

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Santa Teresa, NM at 12:00Z on 2021-07-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 345 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Santa Teresa, NM at 12:00Z on 2021-07-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 35 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
345 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-353 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2381 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
52 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

877 
ACUS11 KWNS 112318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112318 
NMZ000-TXZ000-120045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

Areas affected...South-Central NM

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373...

Valid 112318Z - 120045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for large hail and strong wind gusts continues over
south-central NM.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown a more coherent
southward/southwestward surge within the cluster of storms current
ongoing over Otero and southwestern Lincoln Counties. Given the
airmass stabilization that has taken place over southeast NM, this
more cold pool dominant southward/southwestward motion is expected
to persist, with the overall cluster likely evolving into loosely
organized convective line. Hail and strong wind gusts will remain
possible with this line over the next hour or two.

..Mosier.. 07/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   33390672 33560592 33020519 32540497 31800546 32200736
            33390672

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 10, 8:49 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColfax, Harding, Mora86 min
Jul 11, 10:48 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEddy, Lea87 min
Jul 11, 11:16 AM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCChaves, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Roosevelt7 hr
Jul 11, 1:33 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBernalillo, Chaves, De Baca, Doña Ana, Eddy, Grant and 12 more87 min
Jul 11, 2:23 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBernalillo, Catron, Cibola, Doña Ana, Grant, Guadalupe and 14 more8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.