Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1253

July 10, 202118 counties in Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 10, 2021, 11:56 PM CDT for 18 counties in Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 10, 2021, 11:56 PM CDT (04:56 UTC)
Expired
Jul 11, 2021, 1:30 AM CDT
In force
94 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 368...370
All 25 counties

Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Coal County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Murray County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Clay County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Montague County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2021-07-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2495 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2021-07-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 156 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2495 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-69 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1225 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
156 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
185 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.4
Supercell composite
14.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

422 
ACUS11 KWNS 110456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110456 
OKZ000-TXZ000-110630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Areas affected...Southern OK...Far Northwest/North-Central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 368...370...

Valid 110456Z - 110630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 368, 370
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong, damaging wind gusts will likely continue for the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Western portion of the ongoing convective line has
recently surged more southwestward towards a pocket of greater
instability. This surge coincided with storm development briefly
preceding the outflow before it was then overrun by the outflow.
This merger appears to have allowed the updrafts to become more
colocated with the outflow, strengthening the overall structure of
the line and making damaging wind gusts more likely. A 53 kt wind
gusts was reported about an hour ago in Chickasha. The more
southwestward storm motion will likely keep this line in Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 368 past its original expiration time of 0500Z.

Portion of this line moving through Pontotoc and into John and Coal
Counties has shown a bit more southeastward motion. KTLX velocity
data also shows an area stronger outflow, which looks to be related
to interaction with another outflow boundary from antecedent storms
to the east. 

Airmass downstream of this line is moist and unstable, suggesting
the line should continue for at least the next several hours,
despite low-level nocturnal stabilization. The more southeastward
motion of the central portion of the line may result in the need to
expand Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370 eastward along the Red River in
TX.

..Mosier.. 07/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34689975 35009919 34759591 34099534 33659592 33579679
            33609779 33699893 33909959 34199984 34689975

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 10, 7:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Creek, Custer and 11 more84 min
Jul 10, 8:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Cherokee, Creek, Haskell, Hughes, Latimer and 8 more89 min
Jul 10, 9:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Comanche, Cotton and 18 more84 min
Jul 10, 9:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Comanche, Cotton and 15 more5 hr
Jul 11, 2:46 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Clay, Collin, Denton, Foard and 6 more29 min
Jul 11, 11:48 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCulberson, Loving, Reeves, Ward, Winkler, Yoakum87 min
Jul 11, 12:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrews, Borden, Cochran, Dawson, Ector, Gaines and 14 more7 hr
Jul 11, 2:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Cochran, Dawson, Ector, Gaines, Hockley and 5 more87 min
Jul 11, 3:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCEl Paso, Hudspeth8 hr
Jul 11, 6:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bell, Cherokee, Coke, Concho, Coryell and 22 more84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.