Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1249

July 10, 2021Crawford County, Sebastian County, Arkansas; 14 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 10, 2021, 8:01 PM CDT for Crawford County, Sebastian County, Arkansas; 14 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 10, 2021, 8:01 PM CDT (01:01 UTC)
Expired
Jul 10, 2021, 9:30 PM CDT
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 367

Counties Crawford County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Creek County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Latimer County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2021-07-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2495 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2021-07-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 156 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2495 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-69 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1225 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
156 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
185 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.4
Supercell composite
14.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

901 
ACUS11 KWNS 110102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110101 
ARZ000-OKZ000-110230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Areas affected...Eastern/East-Central OK...Northwest/West-Central AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367...

Valid 110101Z - 110230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damaging gusts remain possible across
northeastern OK. A downstream watch across east-central
OK/west-central AR is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Recent KINX radar imagery shows the cold pool out ahead
of main convective cluster. Updrafts within this cluster are also
weaker than those developing farther west along the cold front. The
downstream air mass is strongly unstable and storm development
behind the cold pool will likely continue. However, given the
current storm trends and expectation for vertical shear to remain
near its current strength (or perhaps even weaken a little), it
seems unlikely that reinvigoration of this line/cluster will occur
and storms will likely stay sub-severe. As such, a downstream watch
is not currently anticipated.

..Mosier.. 07/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36079652 36429594 35959412 35019428 34839535 35059634
            36079652

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 10, 7:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Creek, Custer and 11 more84 min
Jul 10, 9:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Comanche, Cotton and 18 more84 min
Jul 10, 9:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Comanche, Cotton and 15 more5 hr
Jul 10, 11:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Coal, Comanche and 12 more94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.