Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
526 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
TSRA is the main concern for the first portion of the TAF cycle.
All sites are almost certain to be impacted rather directly or
indirectly, but percise timing is uncertain. Storms could have
large hail and very strong winds (Gusts >40kts). MVFR and
possible IFR (vis) are possible within any storm. Activity should
decrease by 06z though RA or -RA may persist a bit longer. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected with winds generally AOB 10 knots
with a few gusts to 20. Direction will be varied across TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...248 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021...

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance aloft will move north to south across the area this
afternoon and evening, bringing a chance of strong to severe
storms to the Borderland. High pressure will shift westward over
California through Thursday night. Moisture at the surface and
northerly flow aloft will continue to help form thunderstorms,
especially along and west of the Continental Divide. A trough will
swing across the area on Thursday, influencing an increase of
thunderstorms chances heading into Friday and through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday...
By around 00Z, a convective complex of sorts seems to emerge, fueled
by the perturbation in the northerly flow moving north to south
across southern NM. 0-6km EBWD of ~30 kts (plus or minus), and
instability (~500-1000j/kg of ML CAPE) should be enough to semi-
organize this complex, with strong gusty winds and heavy rain the
primary threats, including the El Paso and Las Cruces metro,
somewhere between 6 and 10 PM. Much of the activity should move
through by ~06Z, in cohorts with the disturbance ejecting into N
Mexico. A few lingering showers and storms will be possible,
especially near the International Border, but the severe weather
threat will likely be over, or shortly thereafter.

Through Monday at 6PM, much in the way of convective activity will
cease, with area mtns, especially the Gila, favored. Could see a few
stray storms across the CWA however, mainly across any elevated
terrain and west of the Continental Divide. Although moisture and
instability will be modest to decent, especially east, a bit of a
warm noise at ~700 mb may be partially to blame for lack of
convection. That and maybe the atmosphere being overworked from
Sunday. Temps will be in the mid 90s across the area and winds 10 to
20 mph outside of convection on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday
The period starts out relatively quiet on Tuesday, as drier air
aloft begins to filter in from the east/northeast. The Gila and
Sacramento Mountains could see an isolated shower or storm due to
orographic enhancements. Outside of the mountainous regions, dry
air aloft will suppress and inhibit the formation of storms.

An upper level high centered over southern Nevada will drift
toward the southwest over California on Tuesday. The dome of high
pressure will meander and gradually weaken over California
through at least Thursday night and into Friday. Westward movement
of the high pressure will allow for moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico to flow back into the area beginning Wednesday. As
mentioned earlier, when the high pressure moves over California,
this results in persistent northerly flow aloft over the CWA.
Northerly flow aloft and a decent surge of moisture will increase
rain chances on Wednesday. Storms will be more favorable to the
west than the east, perhaps along and west of the Continental
Divide.

Models continue to show an upper level trough racing across the
Northern Great Plains on Thursday. The trough axis will be the
focus as it swings through the area. This should help increase
shower and thunderstorm coverage across the CWA. As the trough
axis continues moving eastward on Friday, models are hinting at a
piece of energy cutting off from the main trough axis. The
uncertainty is where exactly this piece of energy sets up. Where
it sets up could make a big difference in thunderstorm chances and
coverage. For now, the POP grids for Friday-Sunday show isolated
to scattered chances areawide based on that uncertainty explained
above. Temperatures throughout the long term period will be right
at to slightly below normal for this time of year.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relatively moist conditions will continue across the area with min
RHs 20 to 30% lowlands and 30 to 50% mountains through the end of
next week. Expect daily thunderstorm activity to be confined mostly
to area mountains and west of the Continental Divide through mid
next week, with an uptick in activity most locations possible late
next week and into next weekend. Winds expected to remain light
outside of convection, but high mixing heights will foster a mix of
Good to Very Good ventilation most areas (locally Poor to Fair where
convection sets up). Threats with thunderstorms this upcoming
work week will be heavy rain and to a lesser extent gusty winds.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 70  93  74  95 /  50  20  20   0
Sierra Blanca           68  88  65  88 /  30  10   0   0
Las Cruces              65  91  70  93 /  60  20  30   0
Alamogordo              63  91  67  92 /  60  20  30   0
Cloudcroft              48  69  50  69 /  60  30  20  20
Truth or Consequences   66  90  69  91 /  50  40  50  30
Silver City             60  86  63  85 /  50  50  50  50
Deming                  65  93  69  94 /  50  20  30  20
Lordsburg               68  95  70  93 /  40  30  40  30
West El Paso Metro      71  94  74  96 /  60  20  20   0
Dell City               66  91  67  93 /  40   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            73  94  71  95 /  30  10   0   0
Loma Linda              65  87  67  87 /  40  10   0   0
Fabens                  73  95  73  95 /  40  10   0   0
Santa Teresa            68  92  71  93 /  60  20  20   0
White Sands HQ          66  90  72  92 /  60  20  30   0
Jornada Range           63  89  69  91 /  70  20  30   0
Hatch                   65  92  69  93 /  70  20  30  20
Columbus                67  91  72  93 /  50  20  20   0
Orogrande               65  91  69  92 /  50  20  20   0
Mayhill                 54  78  55  77 /  60  30  20  20
Mescalero               56  79  55  79 /  60  30  30  20
Timberon                53  77  54  77 /  60  30  20  10
Winston                 56  86  58  84 /  60  50  50  50
Hillsboro               62  88  66  88 /  50  40  50  30
Spaceport               64  89  67  90 /  60  30  30  20
Lake Roberts            54  87  58  85 /  50  50  60  50
Hurley                  61  88  63  88 /  50  40  50  30
Cliff                   63  94  61  94 /  40  50  50  50
Mule Creek              57  89  64  89 /  40  50  50  60
Faywood                 63  87  66  87 /  40  40  50  30
Animas                  69  94  69  93 /  50  30  30  30
Hachita                 66  92  68  93 /  50  20  30  20
Antelope Wells          67  93  69  93 /  50  20  30  20
Cloverdale              65  90  66  88 /  60  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

35-Delizio/38/34

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1035 AM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-121645-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1035 AM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the region come midday to
early afternoon across the mountains and drifting into the
lowlands into the evening and early overnight. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the primary concerns, in addition to potential
areas of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
Typical monsoon thunderstorms expected through mid next week,
focusing on the mountains and west of the continental divide with
isolated chances across the rest of the lowlands. Isolated
instances of heavy rain and gusty winds possible. There may be an
uptick in the convective coverage the latter half of the week into
the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Trained spotters are encouraged to submit reports of severe
weather and flooding if it occurs.

JD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
508 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

NMZ412-414-415-112345-
Central Tularosa Basin NM-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet NM-
508 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
MDT...

At 508 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
High Rolls, moving south at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sunspot, Alamogordo, High Rolls, Mountain Park, Karr Canyon, Boles
Acres and Oliver Lee State Park.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
south central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3297 10592 3298 10582 3271 10577 3270 10596
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 359DEG 16KT 3290 10585

GRZYWACZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
509 PM MDT SUN JUL 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             4 S CLOUDCROFT          32.90N 105.73W
07/11/2021  E1.75 INCH       OTERO              NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
549 PM MDT SUN JUL 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             2 NNE BOLES ACRES       32.84N 105.98W
07/11/2021  E1.00 INCH       OTERO              NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HARD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ALSO.

&&

TAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
600 PM MDT SUN JUL 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     HAIL             2 N BOLES ACRES         32.83N 105.98W
07/11/2021  E1.75 INCH       OTERO              NM   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERING GROUND.

&&

TAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
608 PM MDT SUN JUL 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 W TULAROSA            33.06N 106.15W
07/11/2021  M63 MPH          OTERO              NM   MESONET

            WSM47 FROM WSMR SAMS NETWORK.

&&

AB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
609 PM MDT SUN JUL 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     20 W TULAROSA           33.12N 106.36W
07/11/2021  M67 MPH          SIERRA             NM   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WSM22 WSMR SALT CREEK.

&&

AB