Mesoscale Discussion 654

Issued

May 17, 2021, 4:10 PM MDT (22:10 UTC)

Expired

May 17, 2021, 6:15 PM MDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 181

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 167 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

027 
ACUS11 KWNS 172211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172210 
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0654
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...southeast Colorado...and
portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181...

Valid 172210Z - 180015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will continue in the
near term, especially across northeast New Mexico into the
northwestern OK/TX Panhandles. The potential for severe wind may
increase into the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar and GOES IR trends show a few
discrete supercells, along with severe semi-discrete clusters,
developing along the higher terrain of northeast NM/southeast CO and
along a dryline across far eastern NM and west TX. Sporadic severe
wind and hail have been reported with this activity with 1 inch hail
recently noted across eastern NM and a 51 knot convective wind gust
reported at KLVS in northern NM. 

In the near term, the potential for severe wind and hail will
continue across all of WW 181, though the corridor of highest severe
potential will likely reside from northeast NM into the
west/northwestern OK/TX Panhandles region. Across this area, steep
low-level lapse rates (near 9 C/km) are overlapping with 35-45 knots
of effective bulk shear as well as near 30 knots of 0-3 km bulk
shear (noted in regional VWPs), which will continue to support a
large hail threat and perhaps increase the potential for severe
winds as discrete/semi-discrete storms gradually grow upscale this
evening. 

Further to the north across southeast CO, storm motions have largely
been slow and along the axis of initiation, and continued upscale
growth is anticipated for the next few hours. Instances of severe
hail are possible with any stronger updraft pulses, but weaker
deep-layer flow amid steep 0-3 km lapse rates suggest a gradual
eastward progression of a broken line, and and isolated severe wind
threat, is possible as cold pools begin to consolidate.

..Moore.. 05/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36030558 36700538 37290517 37740474 38050389 38050302
            37680212 37220135 36740081 36240042 35880045 35700063
            35660115 35610179 35320236 34960288 34620362 34500448
            34750492 35350540 36030558

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.