Mesoscale Discussion 650

Issued

May 17, 2021, 12:39 PM MDT (18:39 UTC)

Expired

May 17, 2021, 2:45 PM MDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch likely

Chance of a watch

80%

Counties Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Costilla County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Colfax County, NM, Harding County, NM, Mora County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Taos County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Oldham County, TX

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 169 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181May 17, 1:40 PM MDT

926 
ACUS11 KWNS 171840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171839 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-172045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

Areas affected...Northeast NM...Southeast CO...Western OK
Panhandle...Northwest TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 171839Z - 172045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase throughout
the afternoon across northeast NM and southeast CO. Some severe
storm are probable, with large hail and damaging wind gusts as the
primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a relatively complex
pattern across the central and southern High Plains. Of interest for
northeast NM and southeast CO is the weakening cold front extending
from south-central CO southeastward through the TX Panhandle.
Temperatures are relatively cool and dewpoints modest on either side
of this boundary, but persistent low-level convergence is leading to
some deeper cu, particularly in south-central CO. Additionally, area
south of front across northeast NM to warm and destabilize. Recent
TCC observation reported a temperature of 70 and a dewpoint of 53.
Mesoanalysis estimates convective inhibition has eroded across this
area, which is matched by modified forecast soundings. An increase
in cumulus coverage has been noted over the past hour, with deeper
cumulus recently observed closer to the high terrain where
orographic effects and strengthening large-scale lift are promoting
deeper ascent.

Expectation is for continued destabilization coupled with
strengthening ascent to result in eventual convective initiation
away from the higher terrain. Convergence along the front will also
likely result in storm development. A predominantly northeastward
storm motion is expected, eventually taking the storms in the TX
Panhandle. Some in situ development along the cold front is also
possible. Overall vertical shear will remain modest, but still
strong enough for organized storm structures, particularly given the
steep mid-level lapse rates. Hail will be the primary severe threat,
with some damaging wind gusts possible as well. Low-level wind
profiles will be weak, but veering with height could still support a
brief tornado or two.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37240559 38010503 38250414 37950264 36600217 35150246
            35090614 37240559

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.