Mesoscale Discussion 647

Issued

May 17, 2021, 1:09 AM CDT (06:09 UTC)

Expired

May 17, 2021, 2:45 AM CDT

In force

96 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 180

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

264 
ACUS11 KWNS 170609
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170609 
TXZ000-OKZ000-170745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0647
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

Areas affected...portions of north Texas and southwest OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180...

Valid 170609Z - 170745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180
continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of strong storms may persist another 1-2 hours,
with near 1-inch hail and locally strong gusts possible. Gradual
weakening in thunderstorm intensity is expected with eastward
progression and downstream watches are not expected.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms are ongoing across portions of the
Texas South Plains eastward into north Texas and southwest OK. A
severe-warned forward-propagating line of storms near the Red River
has weakened considerably over the past 30 minutes as outflow has
surged ahead of the line and convection moves into a weaker midlevel
lapse rate environment. Furthermore, a southerly low level jet
further west over western TX is weaker across western/central OK and
north Texas. Overall this should result in a continued decrease in
thunderstorm intensity both with the cluster of storms near the Red
River to the Dyess AFB vicinity and a couple of weakening supercells
just northwest of Fort Worth. 

A couple of stronger cells east of Lubbock will continue to pose a
threat for near 1-inch hail and perhaps a strong gust over the next
hour or so. This activity is occurring near the stronger low level
jet and in a steeper midlevel lapse rate environment. However, this
activity is also expected to gradually weaken through storm
interactions and as convection progresses eastward into a less
favorable downstream environment.

..Leitman.. 05/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33350128 33730141 34030131 34000089 33899999 33919968
            34289916 34779886 34969866 34839821 34419766 33889740
            33239722 32829729 32549758 32439869 32430034 32740078
            33350128

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.