Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 644

May 16, 20216 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2021, 7:06 PM CDT for 6 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 54 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2021, 7:06 PM CDT (00:06 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2021, 8:00 PM CDT
In force
54 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Barton County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Rush County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-05-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1239 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-05-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 24 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1239 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-32 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1311 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
113 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

256 
ACUS11 KWNS 170007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170006 
KSZ000-170100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0644
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Areas affected...West-Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 170006Z - 170100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Southwestward propagating convection with a localized
hail/wind threat likely to continue through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a small cluster of storms
developing along and south of a stationary boundary paralleling the
I-70 corridor. These cells are developing within a northwesterly
mid- and upper-level flow regime in the wake of an MCV located in
eastern Kansas, and on the eastern periphery of an instability axis
situated across the western half of Kansas, characterized by
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Given the weakly sheared environment,
storms have and will likely continue to be somewhat disorganized,
with pulse updrafts and renewed convective development occurring
along their southwestern flank. Severe hail and gusty outflow winds
can be expected with this activity for a few more hours.

..Karstens/Grams.. 05/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   39019895 38649855 38209875 37669962 37780015 38390023
            38839958 39019895

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 17, 5:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMorton2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.