Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 219

March 18, 20215 counties in Alabama; 6 counties in Florida; Clay County, Early County, Seminole County, Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 18, 2021, 4:28 AM CDT for 5 counties in Alabama; 6 counties in Florida; Clay County, Early County, Seminole County, Georgia. It was in force for 92 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 18, 2021, 4:28 AM CDT (09:28 UTC)
Expired
Mar 18, 2021, 6:00 AM CDT
In force
92 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 38

Counties Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Clay County, GA, Early County, GA, Seminole County, GA

The radar

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2021-03-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2021-03-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 126 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1019 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
126 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
171 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

036 
ACUS11 KWNS 180929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180928 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-181100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021

Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...southeastern
AL...and far southwestern GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 38...

Valid 180928Z - 181100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 38 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat continues across parts of the
Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama.

DISCUSSION...Storms have struggled to intensify over the past couple
of hours as they move eastward across the FL Panhandle and
southeastern AL. A brief low-level circulation in Crenshaw County AL
has since weakened. Even though low-level and deep-layer shear
remain favorable for organized storms, it appears that the lack of
better large-scale forcing and weak mid-level lapse rates are
limiting updraft strength. Even so, a 30-40 kt low-level jet and
enhanced hodograph will conditionally support tornado potential with
any stronger cells that can develop within the broken line of
storms. Isolated strong/gusty downdraft winds also remain a
possibility given the strength of the low-level flow. Given radar
trends over the past few hours, it is not clear whether another
watch will be needed past the scheduled 11Z expiration time of
Tornado Watch 38.

..Gleason.. 03/18/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30398655 30688646 30998631 31348620 31738608 31828542
            31798487 31058473 29968538 30298608 30398655

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 17, 7:07 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCColbert, Cullman, Franklin, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone and 3 more3 hr
Mar 17, 9:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCullman, DeKalb, Jackson, Limestone, Madison, Marshall and 1 more89 min
Mar 17, 10:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Barbour, Bullock, Calhoun, Chambers, Cherokee and 18 more90 min
Mar 17, 11:02 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCoffee, Covington, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston9 hr
Mar 18, 1:52 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Coffee, Covington, Dale, Geneva, Henry and 2 more83 min
Mar 18, 6:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson and 6 more58 min
Mar 18, 6:53 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCDixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jefferson, Lafayette and 5 more5 hr
Mar 18, 10:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Dixie, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Madison and 2 more115 min
Mar 18, 10:42 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval and 7 more6 hr
Mar 18, 9:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBanks, Barrow, Clarke, Elbert, Franklin, Habersham and 5 more2 hr
Mar 18, 1:08 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCElbert, Lincoln4 hr
Mar 18, 2:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCElbert3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.