Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 220

March 18, 202112 counties in Florida; 34 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 18, 2021, 6:32 AM CDT for 12 counties in Florida; 34 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 58 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 18, 2021, 6:32 AM CDT (11:32 UTC)
Expired
Mar 18, 2021, 7:30 AM CDT
In force
58 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch likely
Chance of a watch
80%
All 46 counties

Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Leon County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Atkinson County, GA, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Worth County, GA

The radar

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 43 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2021-03-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2021-03-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 126 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1019 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
126 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
171 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

764 
ACUS11 KWNS 181133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181132 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-181230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021

Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...extreme southeastern
AL...and southern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 181132Z - 181230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts remain possible in
the short term across Tornado Watch 38, and a downstream watch is
likely.

DISCUSSION...Multiple low-level circulations have developed with
storms both in the FL Panhandle and southeastern AL over the past
hour or so. At least two of these circulations were likely tornadoes
with corresponding CC minimums. The low-level flow across parts of
the FL Panhandle and southwestern GA has become backed to a more
southeasterly direction due to surface pressure falls, likely due to
the development of a meso-low in southeastern AL. This is enhancing
hodograps and low-level shear across this region, and a few
tornadoes will remain possible through the morning hours with either
QLCS circulations and embedded low-topped supercells as the airmass
downstream remains sufficiently unstable to support surface-based
storms. Damaging straight-line winds, like the Panama City FL gust
to 64 kt, will also remain a possibility. Given recent radar trends,
downstream watch issuance appears likely.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 03/18/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30028564 30678560 31158522 31558501 32198443 32328369
            32208300 32088280 31308286 30208323 29828361 30008399
            29858435 29538504 29678542 30028564

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 17, 10:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEscambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa90 min
Mar 17, 11:02 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBay, Calhoun, Escambia, Holmes, Jackson, Okaloosa and 3 more9 hr
Mar 18, 1:52 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEscambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa83 min
Mar 18, 4:28 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBay, Calhoun, Holmes, Jackson, Walton, Washington92 min
Mar 18, 6:53 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCDixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jefferson, Lafayette and 5 more5 hr
Mar 18, 10:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Dixie, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Madison and 2 more115 min
Mar 18, 10:42 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval and 7 more6 hr
Mar 18, 9:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBanks, Barrow, Clarke, Elbert, Franklin, Habersham and 5 more2 hr
Mar 18, 1:08 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCElbert, Lincoln4 hr
Mar 18, 2:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCElbert3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.