Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 108

February 17, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 17, 2021, 9:15 AM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 17, 2021, 9:15 AM CST (15:15 UTC)
Expired
Feb 17, 2021, 3:15 PM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Heavy snow
All 47 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Little River County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Miller County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Pike County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Bolivar County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Panola County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Fayette County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Bowie County, TX, Cass County, TX

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 203 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2021-02-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2021-02-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 304 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
693 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
304 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
342 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

466 
ACUS11 KWNS 171516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171515 
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-172115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

Areas affected...the ArkLaTex region northeastward to southwest
Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 171515Z - 172115Z

SUMMARY...A band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow will
continue to expand northeastward across the discussion area,
potentially impacting the Memphis, TN metropolitan area beginning
around 17Z.

DISCUSSION...Precipitation continues to expand on the northern flank
of a precipitation shield covering much of east Texas and western
Louisiana currently.  Over the past hour, precipitation (falling
mostly as moderate snow) has expanded in coverage and intensified
across southeastern Arkansas near Pine Bluff/Dumas and vicinity. 
The overall regime will favor continued expansion of the
precipitation into southwest Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi,
with the onset of snowfall in the Memphis, TN metro area around 17Z.
 Several hours of moderate to occasionally heavy snow will occur in
this region through at least 21Z.  Point forecast soundings indicate
potential for some sleet to mix in with the snow across southern
portions of the MD area (generally from Texarkana to Bolivar County,
MS).  Occasional 1" per hour rates are expected - especially in
areas that maintain an all-snow precipitation type.

..Cook.. 02/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33279461 33939419 34999284 35349159 35679002 35718943
            35388905 34758926 34069006 33609128 33099318 32809404
            32909431 33279461

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 17, 10:53 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot6 hr
Feb 17, 3:22 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Crittenden, Cross and 23 more4 hr
Feb 17, 1:00 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, Itawamba, Lafayette, Lee, Marshall and 6 more3 hr
Feb 17, 5:38 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHarrison3 hr
Feb 16, 6:59 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth and 7 more4 hr
Feb 16, 8:14 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Clay, Cooke, Grayson, Jack, Montague and 2 more4 hr
Feb 16, 9:41 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet, Falls, Lampasas and 5 more4 hr
Feb 17, 1:55 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Austin, Bastrop, Brazos, Burleson, Colorado and 31 more6 hr
Feb 17, 7:38 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJasper, Newton, Sabine4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.