Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 109

February 17, 2021Ashley County, Chicot County, Arkansas; 26 parishes in Louisiana; 52 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 17, 2021, 10:53 AM CST for Ashley County, Chicot County, Arkansas; 26 parishes in Louisiana; 52 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 17, 2021, 10:53 AM CST (16:53 UTC)
Expired
Feb 17, 2021, 5:00 PM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Freezing rain
All 80 counties

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Avoyelles Parish, LA, Bienville Parish, LA, Caldwell Parish, LA, Catahoula Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Grant Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, LaSalle Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Natchitoches Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Rapides Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Sabine Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Vernon Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lee County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Union County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 78 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2021-02-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2021-02-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 182 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1328 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
92 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
182 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
249 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

758 
ACUS11 KWNS 171653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171653 
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-172300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

Areas affected...northern/central Louisiana into much of Mississippi

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 171653Z - 172300Z

SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy freezing rain will persist
across Louisiana today while expanding eastward into Mississippi
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A large shield of precipitation continues across much
of Louisiana and eastern Texas currently.  The precipitation is
enhanced by strong low-level flow (with 50-55kts of southerly flow
indicated in the 1-2km layer at HGX) and isentropic lift atop a
shallow, cold airmass residing across the region.  Meanwhile, light
northeasterly surface trajectories will help in maintaining a
shallow, sub-freezing airmass across much of the discussion area
over the next several hours.  Upstream observations have indicated
up to .25 inch per hour of freezing rain rates in heavier bands. 
0.05 to 0.20 inch per hour freezing rain rates will be possible in
many areas through 21Z, though precipitation may taper across
western Louisiana around that time as forcing for ascent (attendant
to the stronger low-level flow) shifts east of the area.  On the
southern end of the discussion area, freezing rain may change over
to rain later this afternoon as warm advection erodes the
near-surface cool layer.

..Cook.. 02/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30859307 31119353 31779369 32659344 33039299 33179242
            33519145 33849061 34088997 34578897 34618857 34428833
            34148817 33878817 32728832 32238841 31638895 31399040
            31139165 30859307

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 17, 9:15 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia and 28 more6 hr
Feb 17, 3:22 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Crittenden, Cross and 23 more4 hr
Feb 17, 1:55 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Sabine, Vernon6 hr
Feb 17, 7:38 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Caldwell, Catahoula, Concordia and 10 more4 hr
Feb 17, 5:38 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson, Lafourche, Orleans, Plaquemines, Saint Bernard, Saint Charles and 1 more3 hr
Feb 17, 1:00 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, Itawamba, Lafayette, Lee, Marshall and 6 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.