Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 110

February 17, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 17, 2021, 1:00 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 17, 2021, 1:00 PM CST (19:00 UTC)
Expired
Feb 17, 2021, 4:00 PM CST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Heavy snow
All 75 counties

Colbert County, AL, Franklin County, AL, Lauderdale County, AL, Lawrence County, AL, Limestone County, AL, Madison County, AL, Allen County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Union County, MS, Bedford County, TN, Benton County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Chester County, TN, Clay County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Cumberland County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Decatur County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Franklin County, TN, Giles County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Lincoln County, TN, Macon County, TN, Madison County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Moore County, TN, Overton County, TN, Perry County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, Wayne County, TN, White County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 121 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2021-02-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2021-02-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 97 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
854 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
97 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
175 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

999 
ACUS11 KWNS 171900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171900 
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-172200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

Areas affected...northern Mississippi through middle Tennessee and
far southern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 171900Z - 172200Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snow continues to spread
northeastward into the discussion area from the southwest.  1" per
hour rates will gradually become increasingly likely over the course
of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Heavier reflectivities are beginning to appear in radar
mosaic imagery from bear Oxford, MS to southwest of Nashville, TN
over the past hour.  The precipitation itself is likely tied to
isentropic lift across upstream areas of Arkansas/Louisiana where
50-60 kt low-level flow continues to impinge on a shallow
sub-freezing airmass.  The precipitation itself is outpacing most
model guidance, and with low-level moistening occurring beneath the
precipitation shield, areas of moderate to occasionally heavy snow
should begin across the discussion area over the next 1-2 hours or
so.  Snow should be the be dominant precip type, though point
forecast soundings indicate enough of a warm layer aloft to support
occasional mixing with sleet at times.

..Cook.. 02/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35728931 36328805 36698681 36998548 36878467 36028475
            35068578 34378752 34048888 34208979 34629011 35068978
            35728931

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 17, 9:15 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBolivar, Coahoma, DeSoto, Marshall, Panola, Quitman and 2 more6 hr
Feb 17, 10:53 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Attala, Calhoun, Carroll, Chickasaw, Choctaw and 46 more6 hr
Feb 17, 3:22 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, Coahoma, DeSoto, Marshall, Panola and 4 more4 hr
Feb 17, 5:38 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHarrison3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.