Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 104
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 16, 2021, 8:14 PM CST for 25 counties in Oklahoma; 8 counties in Texas. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 16, 2021, 8:14 PM CST (02:14 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 17, 2021, 12:15 AM CST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Heavy snow
All 33 counties
Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Archer County, TX, Clay County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Jack County, TX, Montague County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX
The radar
The Norman radar (KTLX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 707 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 223 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 263 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
559
ACUS11 KWNS 170215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170214
OKZ000-TXZ000-170615-
Mesoscale Discussion 0104
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021
Areas affected...Parts of southern Oklahoma into north-central Texas
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 170214Z - 170615Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow appears most likely for south-central into
parts of southeastern Oklahoma per latest radar trends. Heavy snow
bands may occur in parts of southwestern into north-central
Oklahoma, but uncertainty is higher in these areas.
DISCUSSION...Recent KFWS and KFDR radar imagery show an area of
moderate to heavy snow moving northeastward from north-central and
northwestern Texas into south-central Oklahoma. This activity is
expected to persist for the next several hours as 850 winds and warm
advection increase with time in conjunction with continued mid-level
ascent. Snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour are possible.
Elsewhere in central Oklahoma, areas of banded precipitation have
produced 1 inch per hour rates. Radar presentation has shown a more
nebulous precipitation structure from southwestern Oklahoma into
north-central Oklahoma over the past 1-2 hours. However, recent
development of banding roughly along the I-44 corridor suggests some
remaining potential for heavy snow to impact the OKC metro as the
activity shifts to the northeast.
..Wendt.. 02/17/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33349741 33169797 33409873 33979961 34369958 34749890
35269766 35399698 35449629 35389580 35069529 34469509
33939539 33629605 33349741SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 6:59 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth and 7 more | 4 hr |
| Feb 16, 9:41 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet, Falls, Lampasas and 5 more | 4 hr |
| Feb 17, 1:55 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Austin, Bastrop, Brazos, Burleson, Colorado and 31 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 17, 7:38 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Jasper, Newton, Sabine | 4 hr |
| Feb 17, 9:15 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Cass | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.