Alert archive / Kansas / Special Weather Statements in 2020

Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

June 21, 2020Osborne County, Kansas

NWS Hastings, NE issued this special weather statement at Jun 21, 2020, 7:21 AM CDT for Osborne County, Kansas. It was in force for 24 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 21, 2020, 7:21 AM CDT (12:21 UTC)
Expired
Jun 21, 2020, 7:45 AM CDT
In force
24 min
Issued by
NWS Hastings, NE

County Osborne County, KS

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2020-06-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2453 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2020-06-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 159 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2453 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-139 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1029 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
159 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
209 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
5.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 21, 5:56 AM CDT, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 21, 5:56 AM CDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
556 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Some leftover convection still going on in our KS counties
overnight as moisture advection ensues. Synoptic flow is somewhat
broadly cyclonic with west northwest flow aloft. Meanwhile a
surface low makes its way into western Nebraska early this
morning. A dry line extends south of the low and a nearly
stationary boundary extends east into the northern reaches of our
CWA.

As a long forecast low-amplitude perturbation traverses through
the central Plains today, a high CAPE and strongly sheared
environment in the surface to 6 km layer, with little CIN spell a
likely early initiation of convection along surface boundaries.
Explosive updrafts are anticipated with a veering wind profile,
likely leading to a mixed storm mode of discrete and merging cells
into linear segments. The surface low appears to be a bit farther
north than originally forecast, placing the triple point farther
north as well. Although LCLs are not as low as I would expect them
for prolific tornadic development, dewpoints have been trending
up for Sunday afternoon and could reach mid to upper 60s, perhaps
enough to help give us a tornado or two in the vicinity. SREF LCL
probs would still keep LCL above 1 km, so I am not all that
worried that a tornado scenario will develop in this area. I do
think that significant hail could be an issue with MLCAPE 3000+
J/kg. Wind could also be a significant issue and would not be at
all surprised at 70+ mph reports as DCAPE could be near 1300
J/kg. SRH at in the 0-1 km level is not that impressive for
tornadic support as well. Deep layer shear in the surface to 6 km
level will be increasing with time as well to about 35 KTS this
afternoon and evening. Considering the timing of the upper level
perturbation, surface low, and positions of the surface
boundaries, it appears that the peak severe threat for us will be
4-10 pm.

We should largely clear out as convection treks east, but we still
could be in a bit of a messy pattern with yet another vort max
along with some remaining moisture enough to help spark a few more
thundershowers near sunrise late Sunday night/early Monday
morning, but not a lot of support for severe weather.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

An elevated front could remain far enough north for Monday into
Tuesday morning to support some isolated to scattered
showers/thundershowers. Severe parameters indicate that primary
support for severe weather will remain south, closer to the
surface front as it sags south.

Enough subsidence should give us a dry period Tuesday
afternoon/night. This pattern of low-amplitude waves gives us
chances of precip after Wednesday. The best next shot at rain
comes Thursday/Thursday night as a warm front passes through, and
precip chances to a lesser extent by Friday with the passage of
the cold front. After a cool-ish start to the work week,
temperatures warm closer to normal for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

A cold front will move through the TAF sites this evening and
along that front will be chances for TSRA. Models not in agreement
on exact timing, so decided to carry VCTS for now. VFR is expected
through the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Beda
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 21, 6:07 AM CDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before
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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 21, 2:21 AM CDT, 5 hours before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
221 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ018-210800-
Osborne KS-
221 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN OSBORNE COUNTY UNTIL 300
AM CDT...

At 221 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Natoma, or 23 miles northeast of Emmeram, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Natoma.

LAT...LON 3922 9905 3945 9904 3929 9856 3913 9864
      3913 9901
TIME...MOT...LOC 0721Z 291DEG 14KT 3927 9895

Heinlein
Special weather statement, Jun 21, 7:16 AM CDT, 5 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jun 21, 7:18 AM CDT, 3 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jun 21, 7:21 AM CDT, 0 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Hastings, NE issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 20, 7:01 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDValley44 min
Jun 20, 7:46 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDBuffalo29 min
Jun 20, 7:47 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDGreeley28 min
Jun 20, 7:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDBuffalo, Dawson51 min
Jun 20, 8:16 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDHall44 min
Jun 20, 8:37 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDNance53 min
Jun 20, 8:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDHall, Hamilton42 min
Jun 20, 8:54 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDBuffalo51 min
Jun 21, 12:09 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDNance51 min
Jun 21, 12:35 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDMerrick, Nance, Polk40 min
Jun 21, 1:16 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDMerrick, Nance, Polk44 min
Jun 21, 7:16 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDClay29 min
Jun 21, 7:18 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDNuckolls27 min
Jun 21, 8:50 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDPolk25 min
Jun 21, 9:17 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDPolk28 min
Jun 21, 10:13 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDWebster32 min
Jun 21, 6:08 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDHoward, Sherman52 min
Jun 21, 6:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDHoward, Sherman50 min
Jun 21, 6:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDBuffalo46 min
Jun 21, 6:18 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDGosper, Phelps42 min
Jun 21, 6:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDDawson, Gosper, Phelps42 min
Jun 21, 6:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDBuffalo, Hall, Howard, Sherman38 min
Jun 21, 6:56 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDBuffalo49 min
Jun 20, 7:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDRooks52 min
Jun 20, 8:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDPhillips, Rooks30 min
Jun 20, 9:31 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDRooks44 min
Jun 21, 2:21 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDOsborne39 min
Jun 21, 8:28 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDMitchell32 min
Jun 21, 8:59 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDSmith31 min
Jun 21, 9:09 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDJewell, Smith51 min
Jun 21, 9:51 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDJewell24 min
Jun 21, 10:16 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDJewell29 min
Jun 21, 10:19 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDJewell41 min
Jun 21, 10:39 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDMitchell36 min
Jun 21, 11:06 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDJewell, Mitchell39 min
Jun 21, 11:42 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDMitchell48 min
Jun 21, 1:28 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDMitchell32 min
Jun 21, 2:16 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDOsborne29 min
Jun 21, 2:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDOsborne47 min
Jun 21, 3:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDOsborne, Rooks49 min
Jun 21, 3:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDJewell, Mitchell, Osborne41 min
Jun 21, 3:23 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGIDOsborne3 hr
Jun 21, 3:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDOsborne, Rooks48 min
Jun 21, 4:16 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGIDRooks3 hr
Jun 21, 4:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDPhillips40 min
Jun 21, 4:31 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningGIDRooks5 hr
Jun 21, 4:52 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDPhillips38 min
Jun 21, 5:00 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDPhillips45 min
Jun 21, 5:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDPhillips, Smith16 min
Jun 21, 5:22 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDSmith23 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2020Every special weather statement in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.