Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
556 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Some leftover convection still going on in our KS counties
overnight as moisture advection ensues. Synoptic flow is somewhat
broadly cyclonic with west northwest flow aloft. Meanwhile a
surface low makes its way into western Nebraska early this
morning. A dry line extends south of the low and a nearly
stationary boundary extends east into the northern reaches of our
CWA.

As a long forecast low-amplitude perturbation traverses through
the central Plains today, a high CAPE and strongly sheared
environment in the surface to 6 km layer, with little CIN spell a
likely early initiation of convection along surface boundaries.
Explosive updrafts are anticipated with a veering wind profile,
likely leading to a mixed storm mode of discrete and merging cells
into linear segments. The surface low appears to be a bit farther
north than originally forecast, placing the triple point farther
north as well. Although LCLs are not as low as I would expect them
for prolific tornadic development, dewpoints have been trending
up for Sunday afternoon and could reach mid to upper 60s, perhaps
enough to help give us a tornado or two in the vicinity. SREF LCL
probs would still keep LCL above 1 km, so I am not all that
worried that a tornado scenario will develop in this area. I do
think that significant hail could be an issue with MLCAPE 3000+
J/kg. Wind could also be a significant issue and would not be at
all surprised at 70+ mph reports as DCAPE could be near 1300
J/kg. SRH at in the 0-1 km level is not that impressive for
tornadic support as well. Deep layer shear in the surface to 6 km
level will be increasing with time as well to about 35 KTS this
afternoon and evening. Considering the timing of the upper level
perturbation, surface low, and positions of the surface
boundaries, it appears that the peak severe threat for us will be
4-10 pm.

We should largely clear out as convection treks east, but we still
could be in a bit of a messy pattern with yet another vort max
along with some remaining moisture enough to help spark a few more
thundershowers near sunrise late Sunday night/early Monday
morning, but not a lot of support for severe weather.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

An elevated front could remain far enough north for Monday into
Tuesday morning to support some isolated to scattered
showers/thundershowers. Severe parameters indicate that primary
support for severe weather will remain south, closer to the
surface front as it sags south.

Enough subsidence should give us a dry period Tuesday
afternoon/night. This pattern of low-amplitude waves gives us
chances of precip after Wednesday. The best next shot at rain
comes Thursday/Thursday night as a warm front passes through, and
precip chances to a lesser extent by Friday with the passage of
the cold front. After a cool-ish start to the work week,
temperatures warm closer to normal for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

A cold front will move through the TAF sites this evening and
along that front will be chances for TSRA. Models not in agreement
on exact timing, so decided to carry VCTS for now. VFR is expected
through the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Beda

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
832 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
221200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
832 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected today. The best chance for severe
weather will be between 3 pm and 10 pm. The main threats are very
large hail to the size of baseballs and damaging wind gusts around 70
mph. Isolated tornadoes and localized flooding are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Off and on thunderstorms are in the forecast for the remainder of
the outlook period. Additional strong thunderstorms are possible
this work week, so be sure to stay up to date on the latest
forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight, especially between 3 pm
and 10 pm.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
828 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ019-211400-
Mitchell KS-
828 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY UNTIL 900
AM CDT...

At 828 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Cawker City to 6 miles south of Glen Elder.
Movement was east at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cawker City and Glen Elder.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3955 9823 3927 9815 3933 9838 3956 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 1328Z 284DEG 5KT 3951 9841 3941 9834

Fay

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
850 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

NEZ049-211415-
Polk NE-
850 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN POLK COUNTY UNTIL 915 AM
CDT...

At 850 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Osceola to near Stromsburg. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Osceola and Shelby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 9737 4105 9756 4133 9755 4139 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 1350Z 225DEG 20KT 4121 9750 4107 9751

Fay

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
859 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ006-007-211430-
Jewell KS-Smith KS-
859 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL JEWELL AND EAST
CENTRAL SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

At 859 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lebanon, or 33 miles northwest of Beloit, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon and Esbon.

LAT...LON 3967 9860 3982 9866 3996 9846 3971 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 1359Z 251DEG 14KT 3978 9860

JCB