Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1158 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

Stratus from this morning has lifted and is more stratocumulus this
afternoon. Gradually, the clouds are diminishing. A trough of low
pressure is moving through the Nebraska panhandle this afternoon and
there are a few stronger cumulus developing along the trough.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the trough to the west
and move toward the forecast area later this afternoon and tonight.
Most of the forecast models keep it moving through the northern part
of the forecast area and the southern end of the line dissipates as
it gets closer to our area. Have kept the PoPs in the northern part
of the area, but did bring them a bit further to the south in case
the southern end of the line does not dissipate as it moves into the
area. The best chance for severe weather appears to be during the
evening, because after 06Z, the CAPE decreases.

Late tonight, into Sunday morning, there should be a dry period. The
thunderstorms tonight should have moved out and waiting for the
thunderstorms Sunday to take off. An upper level wave moves into the
area during the day and the surface trough is in the vicinity. The
convection tonight will likely affect the location of the surface
trough and could leave a few boundaries around the area as well. By
late morning the CAPE is over 4000 J/kg and thunderstorms will
probably take off early in the afternoon. The best CAPE/shear
location will be in the eastern half or so of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

The CAPE starts to diminish during the evening. The strongest
thunderstorms should be done between 10pm and midnight. There is
still a chance for some thunderstorms through the night as the upper
level wave moves through, but the chances decrease.

Thunderstorms should move out Monday morning, but the next wave
approaches during the afternoon and the chance for thunderstorms
continues into the evening and maybe overnight in the far south.

Monday night into Tuesday night there is northwest flow with a weak
upper level wave that moves through, there will be some small
chances for thunderstorms, mostly in the southwest part of the area.

The period Wednesday through Saturday will continue under northwest
flow. There are several, mainly weak, waves that move through the
area, but each of them have a chance for some precipitation. Timing
the waves and where the precipitation will be is challenging. The
best wave seems to be Friday into Saturday, but the models have a
difference in timing that makes it a little challenging.

Temperatures through the period will be a few degrees either side of
normal for this time of year. The cooler days will be early in the
week and warmer toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

VFR is forecast overnight. Late afternoon a cold front will move
through the TAF sites. Along the front TSRA could form, will go
with VCTS for now as it is still 18hrs away. Once the front moves
through expect winds to become light and VRB.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Beda

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
859 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     HAIL             4 SW PLAINVILLE         39.19N 99.34W
06/20/2020  E3.00 INCH       ROOKS              KS   PUBLIC

            PICTURES FROM EMERGENCY MANAGER IN ROOKS
            COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JMBW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
932 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             5 S WILSONVILLE         40.04N 100.11W
06/20/2020  E1.75 INCH       FURNAS             NE   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

KS

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