Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
640 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

Stratus from this morning has lifted and is more stratocumulus this
afternoon. Gradually, the clouds are diminishing. A trough of low
pressure is moving through the Nebraska panhandle this afternoon and
there are a few stronger cumulus developing along the trough.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the trough to the west
and move toward the forecast area later this afternoon and tonight.
Most of the forecast models keep it moving through the northern part
of the forecast area and the southern end of the line dissipates as
it gets closer to our area. Have kept the PoPs in the northern part
of the area, but did bring them a bit further to the south in case
the southern end of the line does not dissipate as it moves into the
area. The best chance for severe weather appears to be during the
evening, because after 06Z, the CAPE decreases.

Late tonight, into Sunday morning, there should be a dry period. The
thunderstorms tonight should have moved out and waiting for the
thunderstorms Sunday to take off. An upper level wave moves into the
area during the day and the surface trough is in the vicinity. The
convection tonight will likely affect the location of the surface
trough and could leave a few boundaries around the area as well. By
late morning the CAPE is over 4000 J/kg and thunderstorms will
probably take off early in the afternoon. The best CAPE/shear
location will be in the eastern half or so of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

The CAPE starts to diminish during the evening. The strongest
thunderstorms should be done between 10pm and midnight. There is
still a chance for some thunderstorms through the night as the upper
level wave moves through, but the chances decrease.

Thunderstorms should move out Monday morning, but the next wave
approaches during the afternoon and the chance for thunderstorms
continues into the evening and maybe overnight in the far south.

Monday night into Tuesday night there is northwest flow with a weak
upper level wave that moves through, there will be some small
chances for thunderstorms, mostly in the southwest part of the area.

The period Wednesday through Saturday will continue under northwest
flow. There are several, mainly weak, waves that move through the
area, but each of them have a chance for some precipitation. Timing
the waves and where the precipitation will be is challenging. The
best wave seems to be Friday into Saturday, but the models have a
difference in timing that makes it a little challenging.

Temperatures through the period will be a few degrees either side of
normal for this time of year. The cooler days will be early in the
week and warmer toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

The main aviation forecast concern will be the chance for showers
and thunderstorms this evening. The high-resolution guidance is
really hit or miss with these storms impacting the terminals, so
have just included a VCTS after 01z for both KGRI and KEAR. After
these storms move through late this evening...before 06z...think
it will be relatively quiet until Sunday afternoon. Winds will be
southerly with some cu developing by Sunday afternoon.
Thunderstorms are also expected to develop Sunday afternoon, and
the terminals could be impacted by these...but the details of
timing and location are difficult to determine this far out and
have kept the forecast VFR with no mention of Thunderstorms for
now. See this being added...at least a VCTS in subsequent TAFs.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
333 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
211200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
333 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible this evening between 7PM and
midnight. An isolated severe thunderstorm with large hail up to
golf ball size and damaging wind gusts around 60mph is possible,
mainly for areas near and north of Interstate 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Off and on thunderstorms are in the forecast for the remainder of
the outlook period. Sunday afternoon and evening continue to look
like the best chance for severe weather during this time period,
especially along and east of a line from Greeley to Alma Nebraska
and including north central Kansas, between 3 pm and 11 pm. Large
hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Additional strong
thunderstorms are possible next week, so be sure to stay up to
date on the latest forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight between 7 pm and
midnight north of Interstate 80.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
715 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             6 SSE WILSONVILLE       40.04N 100.06W
06/20/2020  E1.50 INCH       FURNAS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
746 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NEZ060-061-210115-
Buffalo NE-Dawson NE-
746 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BUFFALO AND
NORTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 745 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a severe thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Eddyville, or 23 miles south of Broken Bow, moving
east at 20 mph.

Quarter size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

People in northwestern Buffalo and northeastern Dawson Counties
should monitor the weather situation closely.  A warning may be
needed if the storms move into the area.  Be ready to seek shelter if
severe weather threatens.

LAT...LON 4105 9965 4105 9921 4089 9924 4095 9966
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 288DEG 18KT 4108 9951

Fay

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
747 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NEZ040-210115-
Greeley NE-
747 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GREELEY COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM CDT...

At 747 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greeley, or 23 miles east of Ord, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greeley and Spalding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4148 9829 4152 9863 4173 9861 4174 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 290DEG 16KT 4162 9848

Fay

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