Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
603 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Active weather expected today with severe thunderstorms.

Aloft, closed low pressure was located in southern Manitoba, with
progressive west northwest flow across the plains states with
embedded shortwave troughs. At the surface, low pressure was
oriented in sw Neb around KMCK with a second sfc low in eastern
NM, with the surface trough/dryline extending south across western
Neb and the high plains. As we head into the evening, a warm
front will lift northward into Neb, the western trough/dryline
will migrate eastward into central Neb/western KS, with a cold
front advancing south from SD/northern Neb this evening/tonight.
In increasing lift with the disturbance aloft and convergence
along the boundaries (and any residual boundaries from morning
convection), storms are expected to rapidly develop thru the
aftn/eve. These storms are expected to quickly become severe in a
highly unstable environment with sfc based CAPES at or above 3000
j/kg across much of our cwa, effective shear of 30-40kts and
little if any CIN. Conditions will be favorable for supercell
thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail near baseball
size (3" severe hail fell southwest of Plainville, KS Saturday
evening), along with damaging winds as storms are expected to
transition linear with time. There is also a tornado threat with
increasing low level helicities, and lowering LCLS with increasing
moisture/pooling along the boundaries. Timing of the severe storm
threat continues to be in the 3-10 pm time frame.

Storms this morning dropped a quick 1-2" of rainfall per radar
estimates/precip reports and with precipitable water values in the
1- 1.5" range, the potential remains for decent rainfall rates
and amounts which could cause localized flooding.

While the brunt of the convection/severe weather is expected thru
the evening, chances for showers/storms continue into the night and
into Monday with the deepening upper trough from Canada across the
upper Midwest and in lift as a 70+kt upper jet noses south across
the plains, but the severe weather threat will decrease.

Aside from the potential for scattered convection Monday, it's
shaping up to be a decent day temperaturewise with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s (north/south).

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Overall the forecast trends drier Monday night but could see this
change as some models suggest the potential for some sprinkles or
isolated convection. The upper trough continues to deepen to our
east through the middle of the week before lifting out to the
northeast...leaving the plains states in a northwest flow regime
and a cooler airmass thru Tuesday. Heights rise and temps trend up
behind the departing trough Wednesday with subtle ridging
building onto the plains. The pattern will feature a progressive
west/northwest flow heading into the weekend, with intermittent
chances for thunderstorms and models suggest both Thursday night
and Friday night could see decent storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Thunderstorms are developing along an advancing cold frontal
boundary just northwest of the terminals attm. These storms are
forecast to track southeast this evening...and the storms will be
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and heavy
rainfall. Once these storms move thru, upstream convection across
western Nebraska will continue to provide some chance for
showers/storms overnight and into Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Fay

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
452 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ005-212230-
Phillips KS-
452 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Almena, or 14 miles east of Norton, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Prairie View, Long Island and Woodruff.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3995 9963 3996 9962 4000 9962 4000 9930
      3987 9927 3982 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 245DEG 22KT 3988 9963

Billings Wright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
500 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ005-212245-
Phillips KS-
500 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 500 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Speed, or 7 miles west of Phillipsburg, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Phillipsburg, Logan, Prairie View, Glade and Speed.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3983 9963 3988 9927 3968 9923 3963 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 254DEG 19KT 3977 9947

Billings Wright

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