Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1158 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

Stratus from this morning has lifted and is more stratocumulus this
afternoon. Gradually, the clouds are diminishing. A trough of low
pressure is moving through the Nebraska panhandle this afternoon and
there are a few stronger cumulus developing along the trough.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the trough to the west
and move toward the forecast area later this afternoon and tonight.
Most of the forecast models keep it moving through the northern part
of the forecast area and the southern end of the line dissipates as
it gets closer to our area. Have kept the PoPs in the northern part
of the area, but did bring them a bit further to the south in case
the southern end of the line does not dissipate as it moves into the
area. The best chance for severe weather appears to be during the
evening, because after 06Z, the CAPE decreases.

Late tonight, into Sunday morning, there should be a dry period. The
thunderstorms tonight should have moved out and waiting for the
thunderstorms Sunday to take off. An upper level wave moves into the
area during the day and the surface trough is in the vicinity. The
convection tonight will likely affect the location of the surface
trough and could leave a few boundaries around the area as well. By
late morning the CAPE is over 4000 J/kg and thunderstorms will
probably take off early in the afternoon. The best CAPE/shear
location will be in the eastern half or so of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

The CAPE starts to diminish during the evening. The strongest
thunderstorms should be done between 10pm and midnight. There is
still a chance for some thunderstorms through the night as the upper
level wave moves through, but the chances decrease.

Thunderstorms should move out Monday morning, but the next wave
approaches during the afternoon and the chance for thunderstorms
continues into the evening and maybe overnight in the far south.

Monday night into Tuesday night there is northwest flow with a weak
upper level wave that moves through, there will be some small
chances for thunderstorms, mostly in the southwest part of the area.

The period Wednesday through Saturday will continue under northwest
flow. There are several, mainly weak, waves that move through the
area, but each of them have a chance for some precipitation. Timing
the waves and where the precipitation will be is challenging. The
best wave seems to be Friday into Saturday, but the models have a
difference in timing that makes it a little challenging.

Temperatures through the period will be a few degrees either side of
normal for this time of year. The cooler days will be early in the
week and warmer toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

VFR is forecast overnight. Late afternoon a cold front will move
through the TAF sites. Along the front TSRA could form, will go
with VCTS for now as it is still 18hrs away. Once the front moves
through expect winds to become light and VRB.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Beda

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
333 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
211200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
333 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible this evening between 7PM and
midnight. An isolated severe thunderstorm with large hail up to
golf ball size and damaging wind gusts around 60mph is possible,
mainly for areas near and north of Interstate 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Off and on thunderstorms are in the forecast for the remainder of
the outlook period. Sunday afternoon and evening continue to look
like the best chance for severe weather during this time period,
especially along and east of a line from Greeley to Alma Nebraska
and including north central Kansas, between 3 pm and 11 pm. Large
hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Additional strong
thunderstorms are possible next week, so be sure to stay up to
date on the latest forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight between 7 pm and
midnight north of Interstate 80.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
859 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     HAIL             4 SW PLAINVILLE         39.19N 99.34W
06/20/2020  E3.00 INCH       ROOKS              KS   PUBLIC

            PICTURES FROM EMERGENCY MANAGER IN ROOKS
            COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JMBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
931 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

KSZ005-017-210315-
Rooks KS-Phillips KS-
931 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROOKS AND
SOUTHWESTERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 931 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Logan, or 17 miles southwest of Phillipsburg,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Webster State Park.

LAT...LON 3933 9954 3948 9960 3957 9960 3957 9963
      3958 9961 3964 9942 3940 9928
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 333DEG 12KT 3954 9950

Billings Wright

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
932 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             5 S WILSONVILLE         40.04N 100.11W
06/20/2020  E1.75 INCH       FURNAS             NE   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
940 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     HAIL             WOOD RIVER              40.82N 98.60W
06/20/2020  E1.00 INCH       HALL               NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED VIA KSNB.

&&

JMBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1209 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

NEZ041-048-049-210600-
Merrick NE-Nance NE-Polk NE-
1209 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN NANCE...NORTHEASTERN
MERRICK AND CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1208 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Belgrade, or 32 miles west of Columbus, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fullerton, Genoa, Silver Creek and Belgrade.

LAT...LON 4116 9767 4145 9813 4150 9809 4150 9804
      4151 9804 4151 9789 4153 9788 4153 9781
      4148 9770 4140 9770 4139 9760 4133 9760
      4136 9749
TIME...MOT...LOC 0508Z 303DEG 23KT 4148 9797

Heinlein

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
221 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ018-210800-
Osborne KS-
221 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN OSBORNE COUNTY UNTIL 300
AM CDT...

At 221 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Natoma, or 23 miles northeast of Emmeram, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Natoma.

LAT...LON 3922 9905 3945 9904 3929 9856 3913 9864
      3913 9901
TIME...MOT...LOC 0721Z 291DEG 14KT 3927 9895

Heinlein