Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
556 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Some leftover convection still going on in our KS counties
overnight as moisture advection ensues. Synoptic flow is somewhat
broadly cyclonic with west northwest flow aloft. Meanwhile a
surface low makes its way into western Nebraska early this
morning. A dry line extends south of the low and a nearly
stationary boundary extends east into the northern reaches of our
CWA.

As a long forecast low-amplitude perturbation traverses through
the central Plains today, a high CAPE and strongly sheared
environment in the surface to 6 km layer, with little CIN spell a
likely early initiation of convection along surface boundaries.
Explosive updrafts are anticipated with a veering wind profile,
likely leading to a mixed storm mode of discrete and merging cells
into linear segments. The surface low appears to be a bit farther
north than originally forecast, placing the triple point farther
north as well. Although LCLs are not as low as I would expect them
for prolific tornadic development, dewpoints have been trending
up for Sunday afternoon and could reach mid to upper 60s, perhaps
enough to help give us a tornado or two in the vicinity. SREF LCL
probs would still keep LCL above 1 km, so I am not all that
worried that a tornado scenario will develop in this area. I do
think that significant hail could be an issue with MLCAPE 3000+
J/kg. Wind could also be a significant issue and would not be at
all surprised at 70+ mph reports as DCAPE could be near 1300
J/kg. SRH at in the 0-1 km level is not that impressive for
tornadic support as well. Deep layer shear in the surface to 6 km
level will be increasing with time as well to about 35 KTS this
afternoon and evening. Considering the timing of the upper level
perturbation, surface low, and positions of the surface
boundaries, it appears that the peak severe threat for us will be
4-10 pm.

We should largely clear out as convection treks east, but we still
could be in a bit of a messy pattern with yet another vort max
along with some remaining moisture enough to help spark a few more
thundershowers near sunrise late Sunday night/early Monday
morning, but not a lot of support for severe weather.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

An elevated front could remain far enough north for Monday into
Tuesday morning to support some isolated to scattered
showers/thundershowers. Severe parameters indicate that primary
support for severe weather will remain south, closer to the
surface front as it sags south.

Enough subsidence should give us a dry period Tuesday
afternoon/night. This pattern of low-amplitude waves gives us
chances of precip after Wednesday. The best next shot at rain
comes Thursday/Thursday night as a warm front passes through, and
precip chances to a lesser extent by Friday with the passage of
the cold front. After a cool-ish start to the work week,
temperatures warm closer to normal for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

A cold front will move through the TAF sites this evening and
along that front will be chances for TSRA. Models not in agreement
on exact timing, so decided to carry VCTS for now. VFR is expected
through the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Beda

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
832 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
221200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
832 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected today. The best chance for severe
weather will be between 3 pm and 10 pm. The main threats are very
large hail to the size of baseballs and damaging wind gusts around 70
mph. Isolated tornadoes and localized flooding are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Off and on thunderstorms are in the forecast for the remainder of
the outlook period. Additional strong thunderstorms are possible
this work week, so be sure to stay up to date on the latest
forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight, especially between 3 pm
and 10 pm.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
917 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

NEZ049-211445-
Polk NE-
917 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY UNTIL
945 AM CDT...

At 917 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shelby, or 19 miles south of Columbus, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Shelby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 9748 4122 9754 4129 9737 4105 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 1417Z 234DEG 10KT 4115 9742

Fay

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
951 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ007-211515-
Jewell KS-
951 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JEWELL COUNTY UNTIL
1015 AM CDT...

At 951 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Esbon to near Burr Oak. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Burr Oak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9846 4000 9806 3978 9824 3989 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 1451Z 205DEG 21KT 3989 9839 3982 9827

Fay

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1013 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

NEZ085-086-211545-
Nuckolls NE-Webster NE-
1013 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NUCKOLLS AND
SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM CDT...

At 1013 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Guide Rock, or 35 miles south of Hastings, moving northeast at 15
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Guide Rock and Bostwick.

LAT...LON 4000 9824 4000 9840 4012 9849 4024 9828
      4001 9813
TIME...MOT...LOC 1513Z 243DEG 13KT 4007 9837

JCB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1039 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ007-019-211615-
Jewell KS-Mitchell KS-
1039 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MITCHELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

At 1038 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Cawker City to near Glen
Elder. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Beloit, Glen Elder and Randall.

LAT...LON 3966 9801 3942 9796 3935 9836 3957 9838
TIME...MOT...LOC 1538Z 248DEG 28KT 3955 9830 3945 9829

JCB