Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
339 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Active weather expected today with severe thunderstorms.

Aloft, closed low pressure was located in southern Manitoba, with
progressive west northwest flow across the plains states with
embedded shortwave troughs. At the surface, low pressure was
oriented in sw Neb around KMCK with a second sfc low in eastern
NM, with the surface trough/dryline extending south across western
Neb and the high plains. As we head into the evening, a warm
front will lift northward into Neb, the western trough/dryline
will migrate eastward into central Neb/western KS, with a cold
front advancing south from SD/northern Neb this evening/tonight.
In increasing lift with the disturbance aloft and convergence
along the boundaries (and any residual boundaries from morning
convection), storms are expected to rapidly develop thru the
aftn/eve. These storms are expected to quickly become severe in a
highly unstable environment with sfc based CAPES at or above 3000
j/kg across much of our cwa, effective shear of 30-40kts and
little if any CIN. Conditions will be favorable for supercell
thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail near baseball
size (3" severe hail fell southwest of Plainville, KS Saturday
evening), along with damaging winds as storms are expected to
transition linear with time. There is also a tornado threat with
increasing low level helicities, and lowering LCLS with increasing
moisture/pooling along the boundaries. Timing of the severe storm
threat continues to be in the 3-10 pm time frame.

Storms this morning dropped a quick 1-2" of rainfall per radar
estimates/precip reports and with precipitable water values in the
1- 1.5" range, the potential remains for decent rainfall rates
and amounts which could cause localized flooding.

While the brunt of the convection/severe weather is expected thru
the evening, chances for showers/storms continue into the night and
into Monday with the deepening upper trough from Canada across the
upper Midwest and in lift as a 70+kt upper jet noses south across
the plains, but the severe weather threat will decrease.

Aside from the potential for scattered convection Monday, it's
shaping up to be a decent day temperaturewise with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s (north/south).

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Overall the forecast trends drier Monday night but could see this
change as some models suggest the potential for some sprinkles or
isolated convection. The upper trough continues to deepen to our
east through the middle of the week before lifting out to the
northeast...leaving the plains states in a northwest flow regime
and a cooler airmass thru Tuesday. Heights rise and temps trend up
behind the departing trough Wednesday with subtle ridging
building onto the plains. The pattern will feature a progressive
west/northwest flow heading into the weekend, with intermittent
chances for thunderstorms and models suggest both Thursday night
and Friday night could see decent storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop, increase in
coverage and become severe this aftn and evening. The primary
hazards from the storms will be large hail (to baseball size) and
damaging wind (around 70 mph). Have initially went with a VCTS for
the aftn until coverage increases toward evening and have included
a TEMPO group for the convection. Could see some lingering
showers/storms tonight or early Monday but with an overall
weakening and diminishing trend. Have kept cloud cigs at VFR but
would not be surprised to see a period of MVFR clouds Monday
morning. Also, look for a northerly wind shift behind a cold front
this evening/tonight and variable winds in storms.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Fay

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
346 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
221200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
346 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are expected across the outlook area through
10 pm. The storms will be capable of producing large hail the size
of baseballs, damaging wind gusts around 70 mph and a tornado
cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall may accompany the storms and
produce localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Off and on thunderstorms are in the forecast for the remainder of
the outlook period. Additional strong thunderstorms are possible
at times, so be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through 10 pm.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1039 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ007-019-211615-
Jewell KS-Mitchell KS-
1039 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MITCHELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

At 1038 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Cawker City to near Glen
Elder. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Beloit, Glen Elder and Randall.

LAT...LON 3966 9801 3942 9796 3935 9836 3957 9838
TIME...MOT...LOC 1538Z 248DEG 28KT 3955 9830 3945 9829

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1232 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     HAIL             GENOA                   41.45N 97.73W
06/21/2020  E1.00 INCH       NANCE              NE   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT FROM EARLY MORNING.

&&

JCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
128 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ019-211900-
Mitchell KS-
128 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 128 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Asherville, or 7 miles south of Beloit, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Asherville and Simpson.

LAT...LON 3941 9822 3948 9793 3929 9793 3929 9820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 255DEG 24KT 3936 9808

JCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
216 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ018-211945-
Osborne KS-
216 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSBORNE COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM CDT...

At 216 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Natoma, or 17 miles northeast of Emmeram, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Natoma.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3921 9905 3932 9880 3913 9872 3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 248DEG 14KT 3916 9892

JCB