Tornado Watch 409

Issued

Oct 11, 2018, 9:58 AM EDT (13:58 UTC)

Expired

Oct 11, 2018, 10:36 PM EDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

0.5 in

Strongest gust expected

50 kt

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

70%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

30%

Ten or more severe wind reports

20%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

5%

Ten or more severe hail reports

5%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

5%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

30%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1565Oct 11, 8:31 AM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1566Oct 11, 12:48 PM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1567Oct 11, 3:54 PM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1569Oct 11, 8:02 PM EDT

673 
WWUS20 KWNS 111355
SEL9  
SPC WW 111355
NCZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-120100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
955 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and eastern North Carolina
  Southern Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 955 AM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible

SUMMARY...Showers arcing across southern into central North Carolina
should intensify and develop into embedded thunderstorms as they
spread northeast in association with Michael. Low-level shear and
pockets of downstream surface heating will be favor for at least a
few tornadoes, mainly this afternoon into early evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles south of Jacksonville NC to 35
miles north northwest of Richmond VA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean
storm motion vector 17040.

...Grams

Tornado Watches in Virginia, 2018Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.