Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
420 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The circulation of Tropical Storm Michael will move quickly
northeast over central NC today, before moving off the Mid Atlantic
coast tonight. High pressure will build in from the northwest and
north late tonight through Saturday. A warm front will move
northward into the region Sunday through Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Thursday...

TS Michael will track NE of the forecast area over the next 6-9
hours, with a slowly waning influence. But until it exits, the band
of strong to damaging N winds within convection on the immediate W
side of the storm center, just ahead of the incoming cold front,
will progress slowly E through central NC. We've seen numerous
reports of wind gusts up to 35-45 kts already, and based on the
latest trends (including 50-60 kts observed by the WFO Blacksburg
radar at 1000-1500 ft AGL) and consistent high res model guidance,
this will only get worse as it tracks east. With these intense winds
and accompanying second round of rain, will maintain the tropical
storm warning into the early evening.

The tornado threat continues over our far N and NE sections, based
on several favorable factors including 50-150 J/kg of low level CAPE
and 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, high EHI (1-3) and VGP (0.2) over E NC
along with SCP of 4-6, and 300-350 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. But this
favorable zone is quickly shrinking, so this threat will continue a
slow drift N/NE into VA over the next few hours.

Southwest portions of the flash flood watch have been cancelled
early, as drier air is cutting into the S side of the storm. Heavy
rain potential persists elsewhere, particularly within the
aforementioned rearward convective band, where the potential for an
inch per hour remains. However, will likely be able to cancel most
or all of the flash flood watch prior to its scheduled expiration
time.

Expect clearing from WSW to ENE after midnight. Lows 53-61. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 PM Thursday...

Quiet weather behind Michael. A largely flat flow from the WSW
across the S CONUS will draw a few high clouds across the state, but
the low levels will be dry and stable, allowing us to dry out.
Thicknesses will slip to around 15 m below normal, but this will be
modified by abundant sunshine, and expect highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Mostly clear skies Fri night will give way to
orographically enhanced mid clouds overnight within accelerating mid
level flow associated with a shortwave trough crossing the OH
Valley. With a trend to partly to mostly cloudy skies (more clouds
N than S), expect lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 PM Thursday...

A fairly tranquil pattern ahead (especially as compared to the last
24 hours). A shortwave trough crossing the Northeast states late Fri
night through Sat morning will push the secondary front south of the
area, and with high pressure building in from the N, skies should be
mostly clear, although scattered to broken orographically enhanced
mid clouds are likely Sat morning, mainly across the N. A weak
perturbation tracking ENE just to our W and N, within the mean
steering flow across the central and southern CONUS, should bring
some high clouds across the area Sun as the surface high shifts off
the Mid Atlantic coast, continuing to nose SW into NC.

The frontal zone to our south is expected to shift gradually back
north as a warm front Sun night through Mon, bringing an increase in
clouds and a chance of showers, especially in the NW (closer to the
weak DPVA) and far E (greater low level Atlantic inflow around the
offshore low level ridge). Sheared energy from the Desert Southwest
to the St Lawrence Valley will help push a cold front SSE into the
area Mon night, and this front will linger across the Carolinas
through mid week, until sufficient troughing over and off the
Northeast and Canadian Maritimes helps push the front southward, as
surface high pressure builds in from the WNW. After cloudiness, mild
temperatures, and rain chances Sun night through Tue night, expect a
return to mostly clear skies and dry/cooler weather Wed/Thu. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM Thursday...

Mostly IFR conditions (briefly MVFR to VFR at RWI/FAY) continue this
afternoon as Tropical Storm Michael moves through the region.
Adverse aviation conditions will dominate through the early evening
at all sites, with a broad band of heavy rain lifting northward
through the area. Rain will trend downward in intensity from south
to north at FAY/RDU/RWI through the rest of the afternoon, but
heavier rain will linger for a longer time at INT/GSO. Low level
wind shear conditions remain possible, although surface winds are
expected to be strong enough so as to limit the vertical wind speed
differential needed for LLWS. But regardless, winds will be strong
and shifting with height into tonight, with the initial easterly or
southeasterly direction shifting around to SW/W/NW. A band of
particularly strong winds from the N or NNW is expected as the west
side of Michael's center passes by, impacting INT/GSO 20z-01z, RDU
22z-03z, and FAY/RWI 23z-04z. Cigs/vsbys will improve to VFR very
late this afternoon (INT/GSO) through early evening (RDU/FAY) and
late evening (RWI). Breezy/gusty winds from the NW will persist into
the night but not nearly as strong as this afternoon. VFR conditions
will hold Fri with light winds.

Looking beyond 18z Fri, VFR conditions are likely to hold through
Tue, although a period of sub-VFR conditions are possible early Sun
into Mon with a chance of showers as a warm front lifts through the
area. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-075>078-086-088-089.
Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-
083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Hartfield

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
346 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     TROPICAL STORM   4 WNW SMITHFIELD        35.53N 78.41W
10/11/2018                   JOHNSTON           NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SMITHFIELD FD RESPONDING TO DOWNED TREE ON
            SWIFT CREEK RD NEAR CLEVELAND RD. LANE
            BLOCKED.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
352 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     TROPICAL STORM   3 ESE BETHEL HILL       36.49N 78.83W
10/11/2018                   PERSON             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ABOUT HALF A DOZEN REPORT OF TREES DOWN
            COUNTYWIDE, INCLUDING AT 861 TATUM RD,
            BOWMANTOWN RD/BUCK ST, 1333 HURDLE MILLS RD,
            AND 1559 SURL MT. TIRZAH RD.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
402 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 NNE ALAMANCE          36.05N 79.48W
10/11/2018                   ALAMANCE           NC   ASOS

            56 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED AT
            BURLINGTON-ALAMANCE REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
423 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TROPICAL STORM   SILER CITY              35.72N 79.46W
10/11/2018                   CHATHAM            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON RESIDENCES, ROADS,
            AND POWER LINES IN WESTERN CHATHAM COUNTY,
            INCLUDING IN SILER CITY.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
442 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 NE BURLINGTON         36.10N 79.44W
10/11/2018                   ALAMANCE           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY,
            INCLUDING SOME BLOCKING ROADS AND SOME ON
            HOMES. COUNTY EOC ON GENERATOR POWER.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
501 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TROPICAL STORM   CARTHAGE                35.34N 79.42W
10/11/2018                   MOORE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY,
            INCLUDING TWO ON HOMES, ONE ON A VEHICLE,
            AND MANY ON ROADS.

&&

JFD