Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
735 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The circulation of Tropical Storm Michael will move off the Mid-
Atlantic coast tonight. High pressure will build in from the
northwest tonight through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Thursday...

TS Michael will track NE of the forecast area over the next 6-9
hours, with a slowly waning influence. But until it exits, the band
of strong to damaging N winds within convection on the immediate W
side of the storm center, just ahead of the incoming cold front,
will progress slowly E through central NC. We've seen numerous
reports of wind gusts up to 35-45 kts already, and based on the
latest trends (including 50-60 kts observed by the WFO Blacksburg
radar at 1000-1500 ft AGL) and consistent high res model guidance,
this will only get worse as it tracks east. With these intense winds
and accompanying second round of rain, will maintain the tropical
storm warning into the early evening.

The tornado threat continues over our far N and NE sections, based
on several favorable factors including 50-150 J/kg of low level CAPE
and 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, high EHI (1-3) and VGP (0.2) over E NC
along with SCP of 4-6, and 300-350 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. But this
favorable zone is quickly shrinking, so this threat will continue a
slow drift N/NE into VA over the next few hours.

Southwest portions of the flash flood watch have been cancelled
early, as drier air is cutting into the S side of the storm. Heavy
rain potential persists elsewhere, particularly within the
aforementioned rearward convective band, where the potential for an
inch per hour remains. However, will likely be able to cancel most
or all of the flash flood watch prior to its scheduled expiration
time.

Expect clearing from WSW to ENE after midnight. Lows 53-61. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 PM Thursday...

Quiet weather behind Michael. A largely flat flow from the WSW
across the S CONUS will draw a few high clouds across the state, but
the low levels will be dry and stable, allowing us to dry out.
Thicknesses will slip to around 15 m below normal, but this will be
modified by abundant sunshine, and expect highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Mostly clear skies Fri night will give way to
orographically enhanced mid clouds overnight within accelerating mid
level flow associated with a shortwave trough crossing the OH
Valley. With a trend to partly to mostly cloudy skies (more clouds
N than S), expect lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 PM Thursday...

A fairly tranquil pattern ahead (especially as compared to the last
24 hours). A shortwave trough crossing the Northeast states late Fri
night through Sat morning will push the secondary front south of the
area, and with high pressure building in from the N, skies should be
mostly clear, although scattered to broken orographically enhanced
mid clouds are likely Sat morning, mainly across the N. A weak
perturbation tracking ENE just to our W and N, within the mean
steering flow across the central and southern CONUS, should bring
some high clouds across the area Sun as the surface high shifts off
the Mid Atlantic coast, continuing to nose SW into NC.

The frontal zone to our south is expected to shift gradually back
north as a warm front Sun night through Mon, bringing an increase in
clouds and a chance of showers, especially in the NW (closer to the
weak DPVA) and far E (greater low level Atlantic inflow around the
offshore low level ridge). Sheared energy from the Desert Southwest
to the St Lawrence Valley will help push a cold front SSE into the
area Mon night, and this front will linger across the Carolinas
through mid week, until sufficient troughing over and off the
Northeast and Canadian Maritimes helps push the front southward, as
surface high pressure builds in from the WNW. After cloudiness, mild
temperatures, and rain chances Sun night through Tue night, expect a
return to mostly clear skies and dry/cooler weather Wed/Thu. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 735 PM Thursday...

CIGS and VSBYS will become VFR (KINT/KGSO) by 01z/12, reaching
KRDU/KFAY by 03z/12, and KRWI by 04z.

VFR conditions will hold Fri with light winds.

Looking beyond 18z Fri, VFR conditions are likely to hold through
Tue.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-075>078-086-088-089.
Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-
083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
725 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

NCZ021-022-038-039-073>075-083>086-121030-
Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
725 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

NCZ007>011-023>028-040>043-076>078-121030-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Lee-Harnett-
Wayne-
725 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ088-089-121030-
Cumberland-Sampson-
725 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 SE SANFORD            35.47N 79.17W
10/11/2018                   LEE                NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ALL THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     TROPICAL STORM   LILLINGTON              35.40N 78.82W
10/11/2018                   HARNETT            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN THROUGHOUT THE
            COUNTY, INCLUDING SOME ON POWER LINES.
            APPROXIMATELY 1100 PEOPLE REPORTED WITHOUT
            POWER.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
733 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W HIGH POINT          35.98N 80.09W
10/11/2018                   DAVIDSON           NC   PUBLIC

            WATER RESCUE IN PROGRESS IN THE WILLOW CREEK
            GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY. ALSO, FLOOD WATERS
            STARTING TO FLOW NEARBY OVER THE BRIDGE AT
            MOCK ROAD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
735 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

NCZ007>010-026-120030-
Franklin NC-Vance NC-Person NC-Warren NC-Granville NC-
735 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

...INTERMITTENT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT EASTERN
PERSON...VANCE...WARREN...GRANVILLE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 830
PM EDT...

At 732 PM EDT, Doppler radar data was continuing to show
intermittent damaging wind gusts across the warned area. These gusts
will likely continue over the next few hours as the remnants of
Tropical Storm Michael continue to pull northeast into Virginia
Tonight.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Henderson, Oxford, Creedmoor, Louisburg, Warrenton, Butner,
Franklinton, Norlina, Littleton and Kittrell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Strong winds may occur well ahead of any rain or lightning. Do not
wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover. SEEK SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3644 7792 3638 7791 3630 7794 3603 7812
      3606 7865 3608 7869 3607 7878 3609 7880
      3613 7881 3623 7880 3624 7894 3654 7893
      3654 7790
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 307DEG 39KT 3643 7871

MORROW